Total credit market debt remains in the stratosphere, albeit down since the financial crisis.
Leading indicators weakened in August, but are not yet flashing a recession warning.
Sighs of relief are natural; but a pick-up in volatility is likely here to stay for a while.
August has been a “boring” month, with low volatility and volume; but that’s nothing new this year.
Economic data has been mixed-to-better; supporting new highs for stocks.
The Fed kept rates unchanged but the statement had a notably more positive tone.
The pessimism of investors remains a positive support for stocks longer term.
Household debt relative to income has plunged since the financial crisis.
A recent 42-year low in initial unemployment claims and record job openings belie the weakness in job growth.
Weak U.S. profit growth and Fed policy uncertainty have weighed on U.S. stocks
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