The next U.S. recession will be stamped “Made in America” and it’s not looking imminent.

There have been 33 recessions in the U.S. since the late 1850s and all but five followed increases in short-term interest rates. After the Federal Reserve was created in 1913 only the slump of 1945 amid the post-World War II demobilization occurred without a tightening of monetary policy beforehand.

The lesson Michael Darda of MKM Partners LLC draws from his review of history is that this U.S. upswing has legs until Fed Chair Janet Yellen and colleagues tighten monetary policy too much.

No slump in China, deflation in Europe or geopolitical crisis in Russia is going to derail the world’s largest economy in Darda’s opinion. With the Fed still to raise its benchmark interest rate for the first time since 2006, Darda is betting the expansion which began in 2009 won’t end before 2017.

Analysts at the Economist Intelligence Unit say it will even endure through 2018, making it twice the length of the postwar average and matching the record run of the 1990s, albeit at a much weaker pace.

“One reason we are not worried that outside influences will end the U.S. business cycle is that, in nearly every instance, business cycles in the U.S. have only ended when the Fed tightens enough to end them,” said Darda, MKM’s chief economist and market strategist in New York.

Recessionary Canaries

In total, 85 percent of recessions over the last 158 years were associated with short-term interest rates moving higher than longer-term rates, a so-called inversion of the yield curve, he said.

For now, that doesn’t look in the cards even though the yield curve has flattened lately amid the collapse in the price of oil and decline in inflation expectations. The yield curve’s role as a recessionary indicator is also debatable when benchmark interest rates are so low.

Still, other recessionary canaries aren’t tweeting either, according to Darda.

The ratio of corporate profits to bond yields tends to peak two years before a business cycle, growth in narrow money supply typically turns negative a year before and credit markets often weaken in the final six months of expansion. Consumer confidence and jobless claims slide as the economy slips into recession.

“All of these indicators appear healthy at the moment,” he said. “The cycle will last at least a few more years and perhaps longer based on the time it will take for key measures of economic slack to fully diminish.”