But some experts worry emerging markets are overheating.
By Alan Lavine
The declining value of the dollar and a strong global economy bodes
well for foreign stocks, despite a decade of underperformance in the
1990s.
A recent survey of investment managers by the Russell Investment Group,
Tacoma, Wash., found 54% optimistic and 17% pessimistic. The rest were
neutral. But some leading international investors see the growing
interest and optimism surrounding this asset class as a potential
harbinger of self-fulfilling problems and excessive valuations.
Meanwhile the World Bank recently forecast economic growth ranging from
about 4% to almost 8% in 2006 and 2007 in developing countries and 1%
to 3.6% in the United States, Japan and Euro Area countries (See table).
Although money managers have high expectations, it's not a cakewalk.
Emerging markets are extremely overvalued and due for a pullback,
believes Jeremy Grantham, chief strategist and chairman of Grantham,
Mayo and Van Otterloo, Boston.
In China, the greatest risk may be optimism based on country's strong economic growth. Investors overlook the risk that labor unrest poses to the country's capital markets. For example, 80,000 petroleum workers in northeast China protested wages and working conditions in 2002. Meanwhile, stocks in the China region experienced double-digit losses.
Kate Weingart, author of Working in China (AuthorHouse), says the
country's labor problems are similar to those the United States
experienced in the early 20th century. There have been large numbers of
strikes involving thousands of people over the past few years. The
reasons include: Wage inequality between rural and urban workers;
benefit inequality between government and private business workers; and
poor working conditions for unskilled laborers.
"The labor problems are a risk to the financial system and the
markets," says Weingart, professor of organizational leadership at
Purdue University.
Another potential problem cited by analysts: Economic problems in the
United States could impact the rest of the world, particularly
exporting countries like China. Grantham says the real risks to the
world financial markets are geopolitical or some type of crisis-not
economic.
"The biggest risk over the next couple of years is if something bad
unexpectedly happens to the United States," he says. "It echoes around
the world. It is not the economy, but a couple of random things that
could go wrong. Then you could see a quarter with 20% losses in the
foreign markets."
Such risks help explain why correlations between international stocks
and the United States under normal conditions are 70%, and as high as
90% in down markets.
Foreign stocks exhibit greater volatility in their
correlations with U.S. stocks than they have in the past, indicates a
working paper by Andrew Ang and Geert Bekaert, Columbia University
finance professors. The paper, International Asset Allocation with
Regime Shifts, found correlations between international stock returns
and U.S. stock returns tend to increase in highly volatile bear
markets. So investors must monitor the correlations and make the
appropriate adjustments in their asset allocation mixes.
Despite the risks, money managers say there are a lot of investment
opportunities. The most attractive areas are China and other emerging
markets. The Chinese economy is expected to grow at 8% to 9% over the
next year.
Meanwhile in Asia, excluding, China, low real rates, and improved
banking systems should help boost consumption. Strong exports to China
and Japan should support economic growth.
The outlook in Europe, however, is less exciting. Gross Domestic
Product (GDP) is expected to grow just over 1% in countries that make
up the euro zone. But restrained European wages should help profit
growth.
Thomas Melendez, manager of the MFS International Diversification Fund,
says that emerging markets are the best place to invest. He recommends
that investors keep about 5% to 8% of their portfolios in emerging
market stocks.
Nevertheless, he says that it's best to diversify
internationally due to high risks in thinly traded markets.
It's evident that many of the structural reforms enacted during the
late 1990s and early 2000s in emerging markets have set the stage for
growth in these economies, he says. "Corporate reforms that have taken
place on a company-by-company basis have resulted in an unprecedented
strength of their balance sheets."
Another positive factor: Interest rates and inflation have declined
significantly, allowing for sustainable growth in these economies as
well as in many companies.Over the next 30 years, Melendez says, the
economy of India is expected to overtake Germany, the third-largest
economy in the world. By the middle of this century, the economies will
have very technical skilled labor forces.
"Emerging markets are trading at a 25% discount relative to the U.S.
market," Melendez says. "Many of the emerging market countries have
investment-grade ratings by Standard & Poor's. This is a sign of
financial health."
Some of the largest holdings in MFS' International Diversification Fund emerging market sector include:
Samsung Electronics, one of the fund's largest emerging market
holdings. It sells at just ten times earnings, but future earnings are
growing 16% annually. The company is profiting from flash memory cards
used in iPods and other electronics.
Companhia Vale do Rio Doce, a Brazilian iron ore mining company. This
company has been raising prices at dramatic rates due to strong demand
for ore from Asia. Earnings are growing at double-digit rates.
Tebaris, a Latin American company that makes seamless steel pipes for
oil exploration. The company's revenues and profits are rising due to
the strong demand for products by the oil exploration industry.
Edmund Harris, manager of the Guinness Atkinson Asia Focus Fund, says
he's finding the best investment opportunities in China. "In the
past it's been an export story," he says. "But now it's a consumption
story. There are growing investments in China and the domestic economy
is reaccelerating. There is growth in Chinese companies involved in
infrastructure, electric production and coal mining."
Despite his optimism, Harris also concedes risks. "The biggest risk in
China lies in specific sectors of the economy," he says. "The
investment boom over the past few years resulted in overcapacity and
slumping margins in the steel, cement and auto sectors."
Some of his largest holdings in China include Yanzhou Coal Mining,
Petro China, Solomon Systech International and China Shipping
Development. Besides China, Harris likes South Korean and Taiwan
technology companies.
Japan also looks interesting for the first in a while. The Japanese
stock market has been performing well over the past few years after a
decade-long slump. The banking system is stronger and corporate balance
sheets have improved due to strong cash positions. Wages and employment
are rising. Plus, the country is emerging from deflation. A
strengthening yen spells good news for Japanese equities. But fiscal
policy needs to be tightened to help solve the government debt problem.
Grantham of Grantham, Mayo, Van Otteroo, favors Japan over other
industrial and developed countries, including the United States and
Europe. "I am optimistic about Japan more than any developed
country," he says. "Stocks are at least moderately cheap. There are
still political risks, but the country is doing better politically. The
debt and land overhang have passed."
David Herro, manager of the Oakmark International Fund, upped the
fund's stake in Japanese holdings to its highest level since the 1992
inception of the fund. He still is underweighted in Japan versus his
benchmark. The reason: It's hard to find shareholder-oriented
management teams in Japanese companies.
Still, Herro has been invested in several undervalued firms based on
business values and cash flow since the end of 2005. Stocks
include Kao Corp., the country's largest producer of personal care and
cleaning products; Rohm Co. Ltd., which makes a wide range of
semiconductors; Unicharm Corp., which makes disposable diapers,
feminine hygiene and adult products; Honda Corp., one of the world's
leading car manufacturer; and NTT DoCoMo Inc., a mobile phone carrier
with more than 50 million subscribers.
Although Asia and the Far East look good, the European markets could
underperform, says Edward Yardeni, chief investment strategist with Oak
Associates, Akron, Ohio. His reasons are quite contrarian: The U.S.
dollar should rise against the Euro due to high unemployment and
deficits in Europe. He recommends that investors reduce holdings in
European stocks and stocks of U.S. multinational companies with a
strong presence in continental Europe.
Grantham disagrees. German companies, he says, could be solid
investments. The country has low inflation, its exports are on the rise
and it is conservative.
Nicholas Kaiser, manager of the Sextant International Fund, says
investors should not overlook Canada, Latin America and South America.
Plus, he's been accumulating shares in multinational European companies
with price-to-earnings multiples that are less then earnings growth
rates of about 20%.
"We are value investors going with cyclicals, mining and commodities
with favorable future earnings," he says. "Canada is our biggest
country exposure because of the natural resources and mining companies.
We see oil prices and commodity prices holding up."