Count Bert Whitehead among the more evangelical anti-timers. "Timing systems, like gambling systems, will end up on the shelves of history along with the theories of alchemy," says the founder of Cambridge Advisors in Highland, Mich. "It seems that most people in the financial community believe the myth that people can predict what stocks will do."

Whitehead follows a strategy he calls functional allocation, which comprises stocks, bonds and real estate. Setting aside 10% of a person's income in a 50-50 mix of stocks and bonds that earn market returns, over a long period of 30 years or so, should provide enough money to live off, he says, while real estate is the "wild card" that can really boost a person's portfolio.

Mark Hulbert is officially agnostic regarding market timing, but he acknowledges that statistics prove a handful of people can do it successfully to a certain degree, and that a few do it better than most. The failure of the majority reflects the difficulty in beating an efficient market that represents the input of the masses. "Markets incorporate a lot more information than any one person can bring to the table," he says. "When you put it all together, it's very difficult to beat the house."

But whether it's Las Vegas or Wall Street, people will always try to beat the house. And with investing, short-term inefficiencies provide tempting opportunities to hit the jackpot. "Our position isn't that market timing can't potentially add value," says Peng Chen, Ibbotson's research director. "Our position is that market timing requires superior skills, and that most people-including many professionals-don't have those skills."

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