I bring up Granville today as a reminder of the many risks we undertake when we a) try to time markets; 2) take ourselves too seriously; and 3) refuse to acknowledge our fallibility.

It’s the last of those three that has been most resonant this week. Some perennial bears have been declaring vindication for their great market insight -- this despite having missed the better part of a 250 percent rally since this bull market began.

My colleague Ben Carlson makes several astute observations about this, perhaps the most important being that “your favorite pundit isn’t going to be able to help you make it through the next bear market." A close second is that “the majority of the people who have been scaring investors by predicting a bear market every single month for the past seven years will be the last ones to put their money to work when one actually hits.”

The bottom line is this: The relentless rising trend for markets has been broken, and whether it is going to recover anytime soon is unknowable. Your best bet is to have a plan, stick to it and keep your own counsel.

Oh, and don’t to be a Granville. It’s a career-ender.
 

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