I’ve always admired Vanguard founder Jack Bogle, so it was amusing to see him on CNBC earlier this week reiterating his conviction that buy-and-hold will work even though it is entirely possible that the market could experience another 50 percent decline in the next decade. He threw the CNBC gang into a new tizzy, but he is right.

Bogle actually remarked that a couple of declines of 25 percent or 30 percent were more likely in the next decade, but he expected equities to double in price over that period, taking the S&P 500 to 3,000. The fact is equities have experienced four 50 percent declines in the last century, and two have occurred in the last 13 years. However improbable it may be, who is to say it couldn't happen again.

We all know one big crack-up is coming in the next decade. That will occur when the Federal Reserve ends QE and begins raising rates. But that accident will affect the bond market first and it has been so well-telegraphed that it should come as no surprise.

Nevertheless, one should expect some major discombobulations. If the interest rate on a 10-year bond rises to 5 percent, investors could lose about 30 percent of their principal, so they are even less likely to offer a safe haven.

In all likelihood, Fed officials already are burning the midnight oil figuring how to provide as soft a landing as possible. Moreover, the next disaster is likely to come from an event no one expects than one everyone expects.

What always amuses me is that everyone talks endlessly about volatility when stocks are going down, but no one bothers to mention it when they are in elevation mode. Given that equities have climbed 130 percent in the last four years and show no signs of slowing down, a major correction at some point is inevitable. Still, I think Bogle is spot and they will be a whole lot higher in 2023. Of course, neither he nor I have to deal directly with retired individuals.