Byron Wien, vice chairman of Blackstone’s advisory services unit, announced his annual “10 Surprises” list, which he has published every year since 1986.The 80-year-old former Morgan Stanley senior strategist defines the "surprises" as events investors assign 1-in-3 odds of happening, but that he says are more than 50 percent likely in 2014.

The 10 surprises are:

1.) The S&P 500 rises 20 percent after a 10 percent correction.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

2.) U.S. economic growth exceeds 3 percent and the unemployment rate gets closer to 6 percent.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

3.) The U.S. dollar strengthens to below $1.25 against the euro and buys 120 yen.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

4.) The Nikkei rises to 18,000 early in the year followed by a 20 percent correction in the second half.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

5.) China’s economic growth slows to 6 percent as political leaders rebalance the economy toward consumer spending and away from investments. Mainland stocks have a disappointing year.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

6.) Mexican and South Korean equities rally, while other emerging markets underperform.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

7.) West Texas Intermediate crude climbs above $110 a barrel on demand from developing economies.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

8.) Corn advances to $5.25 a bushel, wheat to $7.50 and soybeans to $16 amid rising standards of living in emerging markets.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

9.) The yield on the 10-year U.S. Treasury rises to 4 percent on U.S. economic strength and higher inflation.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

10.) The problems with the Affordable Care Act are fixed and President Barack Obama’s approval rating improves. In the November elections, Democrats retain control of the Senate and gain seats in the House.

 

 

 

 

 

 

Bob Doll, Nuveen's chief equity strategist, also released a top 10 list of his predictions for 2014. To see them, click here.