As they taste next week, merchants, as always, will be pondering not just quality, but other pivotal factors—possible prices, the exchange rate, and demand, all of which have a profound effect on the en primeur campaign.

How the Futures Work

Here’s how en primeur functions: The châteaux sell a big or small portion of their wines while they are still in barrel as futures to negociants, who in turn sell them to merchants, who sell them to customers. The bottled wines won’t be delivered for two years, so the 2015s won’t arrive in stores until 2018. The tastings next week will give merchants a chance to decide which wines they think they can recommend to their customers.

The châteaux decide on an initial release price to negociants, who add a margin of profit before passing them on to the merchants and you.

So far, neither negociants nor merchants are anticipating the kind of futures fever there was for the much-hyped 2009 vintage, when a rush of incoming orders for Château du Tertre crashed the computer system at London merchant Berry Brothers & Rudd for 10 minutes. The company sold 700 cases in an hour and 3500 cases of Château Batailley sold out in four days.

Different Times

Back then, China’s buyers were red-hot. Now they’re not.

As London international vintners exchange Liv-Ex points out in its just-issued Bordeaux 2015: A price guide for Liv-ex members, after years of negative returns and vanishing margins, consumers, collectors, and the international trade have become skeptical of the advantages of buying Bordeaux futures.

The reason for wine lovers to buy futures used to be to get in-demand wines at the lowest possible price.

But for the 2011s, 2012s, 2013s, and 2014s, the tastings were mostly ho-hum events that generated zero excitement. High prices left stacks of 2011s piling up in negociants’ cellars. About 90 percent of the 2013s, now in bottle and just hitting retail shelves, cost either the same or less than they did as futures. No profits there. The 2014s, just about to be bottled, taste great—but you wouldn’t know it from sales so far.

Pomerols from 2012 did sell well, according to Giles Cooper of BI, the merchant formerly known as Bordeaux Index. The company built its reputation on selling Bordeaux but has diversified significantly to Champagne, Spain (booming), and Italy.

Pound Problems

This year, a lot of uncertainties loom in the U.K., which is traditionally a reliable bastion of Bordeaux-buying. Even if châteaux don’t increase their prices by much, the stronger euro price against pound sterling will surely make futures prices less attractive and make the vintage a high risk for London merchants. The overhanging threat of the “Brexit” referendum on June 23 may push the pound even lower.