There may well be a longer-term political trend developing here. If economic growth remains weak, it looks quite possible, based on the European examples, that opposition to immigration could become a core issue for at least one party. In Europe, these parties have formed in the past decade and are enjoying increasing success. Combined with protectionist economic sentiment, large segments of both major U.S. parties may end up turning inward, away from the world.

Unless the economy improves, expect continued tension. If Trump doesn’t win the Republican nomination, I wouldn’t be surprised if he attempted to take over the party and have another try in four years—or, as in Europe, he could recruit like-minded candidates to start a third party around his ideas. Even if he were to move away from politics, others would certainly rise to take up his ideas.

In any event, U.S. politics may have changed more than we realize. It won’t be just about this election.
 

Brad McMillan is the chief investment officer at Commonwealth Financial Network, the nation’s largest privately held independent broker/dealer-RIA. He is the primary spokesperson for Commonwealth’s investment divisions. This post originally appeared on The Independent Market Observer, a daily blog authored by McMillan.

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