“The auction houses realize that this guarantee race is unsustainable and not profitable,” Petterson said. “They need to reduce that kind of exposure.”
There are signs that the auction houses are already bracing for a potential slowdown by slimming down their sales of Impressionist and modern art in London next month, the market’s first test of 2016.
At Sotheby’s, the mid-point estimates are down 16 percent from last year’s mid-point estimates, Chief Executive Officer Tad Smith said during a call with investors last week. Christie’s middle estimates for the same auctions are 4 percent lower than a year ago, according to data provided by a spokeswoman.
Still, said Brooks, “If 2015 saw a teeny-weeny reduction, I don’t see it as a weak market. I see it as absolutely solid.”