“I think he will still pull about 25 to 30 percent (in the polls),” e-mailed Republican lobbyist and longtime strategist John Feehery. “There’s not a lot of love for Muslims right now,” he added, extending beyond news events including the San Bernardino and Paris attacks to pop culture. “You have the television series Homeland that portrays them all like a bunch of terrorists.”
“While he could lose a little support, the people that are supporting Trump will most likely agree with his viewpoints because they only see the violent actions committed by Islamic jihadists on cable news,” said Republican strategist Ron Bonjean. “These voters are angry at what’s happening in America and most agree with even some of the most outrageous comments he makes.”General-Election Risks
Trump's proposal is roiling the party less than two months before first votes are cast, and supporters have shown they’re drawn to him for deep-rooted personal and policy reasons, upending any hope of party leaders that his bid might have been a media-fueled summer fling. He’s demonstrated a unique talent for harnessing the anxieties of white working-class Americans about a country that is becoming more racially and religiously diverse.
In a general election, however, his strategy could be poisonous for the Republican Party. In 2012, Romney lost Hispanic Americans 71 percent to 27 percent and Asian Americans 73 percent to 26 percent. Those are the fastest-growing demographics in the U.S., and many political analysts say the GOP's chances of winning back the White House hinge on its ability to narrow those margins.
Establishment Republican leaders hope that Trump has peaked and that the party will unite behind an alternative once the field winnows. That's not a safe bet yet, and at the very least it'll require more patience.
The Muslim ban proposal “doesn't bring him down, but it will weigh him down,” said Jack Pitney, a political science professor at Claremont McKenna College in Southern California. “Trump is a cargo plane that is carrying too much craziness to rise any higher.”