(Bloomberg) The Dow Jones Industrial Average will surge to 38,820 in an eight-year "super boom" that will begin in 2017, according to Jeffrey A. Hirsch, editor in chief of the Stock Trader's Almanac.
"All previous major economic booms and secular bull markets were driven by peace, inflation from war and crisis spending, and ubiquitous enabling technologies that created major cultural paradigm shifts and sustained prosperity," he wrote in a press release sent with the 44th edition of the book.
The 114-year-old measure of the U.S. stock market closed at 10,860.26 last week and reached a record high of 14,164.53 in October 2007. The Dow has lost an average of about 1.3 percent a year since the end of 1999 following the Internet bubble and the worst financial crisis since the Great Depression. Hirsch's forecast requires a 257 percent gain from current levels.
The Stock Trader's Almanac, first published by Hirsch's father Yale Hirsch in 1967, is known for revealing seasonal patterns in equity market returns. The "Best Six Months" strategy shows that since 1950, investors made the most money owning shares of Dow companies between Nov. 1 and April 30 and avoiding them the rest of the year. The book also says that the third year of U.S. presidents' terms produce the best returns.
The withdrawal of U.S. troops from Iraq and Afghanistan and inflation caused by the wars and spending to end the financial crisis will help push the Dow higher, Jeffrey Hirsch said in the statement. Advances in energy technology or biotechnology may also help spur the rally between 2017 and 2025, he said.