Once again, it’s time for our monthly update on risk factors that have proven to be good indicators of economic trouble ahead. On the whole, some of the worrying downward movement has reversed, suggesting that risks may be starting to retreat. The change in consumer confidence metric remains below zero, but even that may be stabilizing. We’re also seeing some signs of stabilization in other areas, such as the yield curve indicator.
Although risks remain, many of these metrics continue to improve on a forward-looking basis, and the overall view remains positive—more so than it has for the past couple of months.