It's Friday and several of the Fed members are sounding off and the markets are reacting violently. Let me ask you a few simple questions:

1.     Is the Fed's next move to raise or lower rates?

2.     Will a quarter point hike really impact the economy?

3.     Does a hike mean that we are nearing full employment and inflation at 2% and rising?

4.     Is the Fed trying to slow the anemic recovery or signaling an all clear and a time to return to normalization?

5.     Where should the funds rate really be with an economy expanding by 2% with core inflation beneath 2.0%?

6.     How will a quarter percent hike effect foreign economies, currencies, commodities and business/consumer confidence?

7.     Is it premature (as in December) if the Fed raises rates in September or should they wait until the global economy is on sounder footing?

8.     How will a quarter point hike affect the yield curve, currencies, commodities and stock valuations?

I want to begin by stating that rates are as low as they will go this cycle everywhere unless something bad happens impacting the global economy. Secondly, the benefits of easy monetary policies are behind us so it's time for actions by governments everywhere to change fiscal, regulatory, tax and social policies to stimulate growth. Let's pass the baton from monetary authorities to governments to carry our economies forward. Until these changes are implemented, our economies will stay stuck in a rut regardless of monetary policy.

As long as risks to the upside are limited; global growth is not on sound footing and fears of deflation still exist in both Europe and Japan, the Fed should remain on hold.  The world needs more growth rather than less. Global risks still exist primarily to the downside.

I still believe that the Fed should not raise rates until December at the earliest, and only after data points support expanding U.S and global economies for 2017 and 2018. It's time that the Fed acknowledges, as one of its key data points, what is happening abroad and fully considers the impact of its policies on all markets and vice versa. Globalization is a fact of life.

While I support a return to normalization as soon as possible, now it not the time as the risks to the downside still outweigh fears of an overheating economy with inflation breaching 2% and rising. Bond yields and currencies here and abroad have been relatively stable recently indicating that some sort of an equilibrium point has been reached. If the Fed raises rates, it risks destabilizing all markets, which is unhealthy, and may halt what improvement in global economies, albeit slow, has been occurring. The fact that Brexit did not damage the markets as many feared is no reason for the Fed to act now. Also, recent domestic data certainly does not support an accelerating economy much beyond an inventory adjustment adding to growth.

I made three points recently that need repeating.

First, the Fed is getting a false positive reading from the employment data. The truth is that companies are substituting labor for capacity expansion. Operating rates have breached levels of efficiency. 

Second, consumer spending remains the only real area of strength and would be at risk if the economy slows or the value of financial/real assets decline due to Fed actions.  Yes, the saving rate would rise benefitting many who have suffered from low rates.

And finally the "disruptors" like Amazon and Uber as well as the competitive aspects of globalization will continue to keep downward pressure on prices and inflation.  Bottom line is that the Fed has nothing to fear by waiting longer to hike rates.

While I really don't think that a slight uptick in the Funds rate will alter the trajectory of the economy much, it could negatively impact the mindsets of business leaders and consumers here and abroad. Why take the risk? Is the economy running away and inflation accelerating to a point of concern? No!

I am also concerned by the upcoming election and the markets' reaction. Personally I have no confidence in either Presidential candidate and am hoping for a stalemate in DC with one party controlling the House and the other the Senate.  It's a shame as so much can be done in DC to stimulate growth and restore the U.S to its lofty status in the world. Will it be another lost 4 years? Is maintaining the status quo the best we can do?

If it were not for the resilience and brains of the U.S businessman and the strength in the consumer, it would be easy to take some chips off the table especially after outperforming the market.  But I go back and review my core beliefs, challenging each of them; and then look at the financial markets. Bearishness is everywhere; there are records levels of cash; and the yield of the stock market exceeds 10-year bonds. Finally, change is everywhere creating tremendous opportunities to profit as an investor.

Could the market have a hiccup if the Fed raises rates in September? Absolutely! The stock market has been basing for several years now as we have been in an earnings recession but that is about to change and so will the market leadership.

Let me state a simple truth. The market is NOT selling off of a 1.6% 10-year bond yield. If so, the market multiple would be well north of 20 when its closer to 17 now. As Lee Cooperman said a week ago, he is using a 3.5% 10-year bond yield to come to his market multiple of 17 times. We are using a 2.5% 10-year bond yield, a 19 market multiple, $125 in 2017 S&P earnings and 10% upside for the market. So if the Fed hikes a quarter of a point all the way to 0.75%, I don't expect much impact to the economy, currencies and foreign markets after an initial downward reaction.

Can you imagine that we are worried about a 0.75% funds rate? A hike won't be due to an overheating economy or fear of inflation but an attempt to return to normalization. Is that a bad thing to do? Isn't it about time that someone declared victory after 8 years of recovering and healing from an economic disaster here and abroad?

Think about all the positives that have come out of the 2008 debacle. Banks have significantly built their capital ratios; corporations and consumers have improved their balance sheets and interest coverage ratios; more people are working and wages are rising, albeit slowly: energy prices are beneath $50 per barrel and are capped on the upside as U.S shut in production would come back on line if oil breached $60 per barrel; other commodity costs are down including foodstuffs, inflation disruptors are everywhere and globalization is a fact of life reducing inflationary expectations; and finally CHANGE is everywhere. And with change comes opportunities to profit.

I believe that the Fed should hold off until after election before returning toward a path of normalization. If they choose to hike now, it won't be the end of the world and will create opportunities to add to positions at better prices. Can you imagine the buildup in bearishness creating a classic trading bottom? While I never like to see violent moves in either direction, always maintaining excess liquidity and having internal hedges prepare us. For instance, if and when the Fed hikes, consumer nondurables, drugs, utilities and MLPs may decline while banks financials and industrials may rise.

So remember to review all the facts; step back, pause and reflect; consider mindset shifts; maintain excess liquidity and control risk at all times;  do independent research on each investment idea and ... Invest Accordingly!

William A. Ehrman is managing partner at Paix et Prosperite LLC.