Reducing stimulus and winding down the balance sheet without roiling markets is one of the biggest challenges Bernanke’s successor would face, should the chairman not serve a third, four-year term. President Barack Obama said this week that Bernanke, 59, has stayed in his post “longer than he wanted,” one of his clearest signals yet the Fed chief will leave.
Fed Vice Chairman Janet Yellen is the likeliest candidate to replace Bernanke when his term ends in January 2014, according to economists in the survey. The economists assigned Yellen a 65 percent chance of ascending to the top job at the central bank.
Former Treasury Secretary Timothy F. Geithner was given a 10 percent chance of becoming the next chairman and former Obama adviser Lawrence Summers, Treasury secretary under President Bill Clinton, was given 9 percent odds.