3. What concessions will Senate Banking Committee Chairman Richard Shelby get (if any) to bring the SEC back up to its full slate of five commissioners?
The SEC is down to three with the departures of Republican Gallagher and Democrat Luis Aguilar. With input of Congressional leaders, President Obama has nominated their likely replacements, including a former Shelby staffer.
But why the Shelby delay? The committee must approve the nominations before they can be sent on to the full Senate and before they can be given SEC desks and smartphones.
What is he seeking from the White House and/or the SEC to make the nominations happen? His wish-list could have nothing to do with financial regulation. In Washington, sometimes you have to shoot a bear to hook a fish.
4. President Obama isn’t the only one with legacy on his mind. SEC Chair Mary Jo White may be thinking the same.
Her tenure ends when his does, so it will be interesting to see if she announces any major initiatives in her last year in office.
Interesting, yes. Likely no. Proposing, reviewing, taking comments on and finalizing a rule can take years.
One proposal that definitely will not surface is a fiduciary standard for broker-dealers because of pressure from the industry and opposition from the lone SEC Republican Commissioner. You can bet the farm on this or if you don’t have a farm, your 401(k) will do.
5. Watch the Congressional elections. The wealth seniors have over millennials is not just monetary. It is also electoral.
The old vote in much larger numbers than the young.
The impact is likely to be seen more in the House and Senate races than in the Presidential contest.
Social Security decreases will be off-the-table for retirees and near retirees, but could be in the offing for the next session of Congress post-2016.
Here is an issue to watch for in Congressional contests because it spans generations: student debt.
The millennials’ parents are still paying off their own debt and struggling to save for their teen-age kids’ tuitions while millennials are frustrated because they can’t buy cars and homes.
Ted Knutson is the Washington correspondent for Financial Advisor. The views in this column are his own.