So far, she has been right. For the five years ended in August, the commodities benchmark S&P GSCI Spot Index climbed 36% compared with a 4.6% drop for the S&P 500.
"This is a regime change from the dominance of stocks and bonds," she says.
Farm prices will jump further as genetic engineering, irrigation and fertilizers fail to replenish overused land, she says.
"Productivity in yield enhancement is coming to an end," she says.
In the U.S., fewer young people are taking up the plow just as Brazil, Turkey and Indonesia consume more food.
"That will put pressure on agricultural prices," she says.
Haugerud grew up amid the farms and forests of Fillmore County, Minn., rising before dawn to feed the cattle. Her father, Neil, was sheriff, and their home doubled as the jail. Young Renee helped serve breakfast to the prisoners in the rear of the house.
When she was 5, her dad took her in a single-engine plane to check cornfields, explaining how investors could sell corn on a futures exchange without actually owning it.
"I was mesmerized," she recalls.
'Pragmatic Simplicity'
Haugerud headed to the University of Montana, Missoula, for a forestry degree. After graduation in 1980, she became a trader at Minnesota commodities giant Cargill Inc. Genesis Capital Fund LP, a hedge fund based in Fairfield, Iowa, headhunted her in 1993 to run proprietary trading. She moved to Hong Kong two years later with the U.K.'s NatWest Markets Ltd.
Longing for her own company, she put up $5 million in 1997 to found Galtere, a name she invented to convey "pragmatic simplicity."
Galtere climbed 61% in 2002, Haugerud's breakout year. Gold futures rose 25%, and she shorted the S&P 500, which fell 24%. The company, however, had only $12 million in assets and couldn't attract investors.
"There is a subliminal feeling, which I don't agree with, that women won't lose you money but won't be able to make you big money," she says.