The quip “the only constant is change” may need a corollary for 2016: with constant change comes increasing risk.

The evolving geopolitical climate is contributing significant risk to the financial industry from unanticipated sources, Ian Bremmer, CEO of New York-based risk consultant The Eurasia Group, told advisors on Thursday at the 2016 TD Ameritrade National LINC conference in Orlando.

“For the past 50 years, if you had wanted to you could have simply discarded geopolitical risk when it happened,” Bremmer said. “Any time you saw the Chinese and Americans rattling sabers around Taiwan, and the Taiwanese markets wend down, that should have been a buy signal, because the markets were going to go back up. You could do that for every geopolitical risk for the last half century. The bad news is you can no longer do that.”

Bremmer predicts a more fragmented world throughout 2016 and beyond as the political order that led to decades of relative stability collapses.

The most concerning news in the near term, Bremmer says, is the likely fall of the Saudi Arabian monarchy.

“I don’t know what keeps the Saudi government in place,” Bremmer says. “We have $35 oil, the one thing that has kept Saudi Arabia together is their ability to take money out of the ground and give it to their population, and they can’t do it anymore, let alone fund 15,000 Saudi royals.”

The pressure of low oil prices is contributing to a deteriorating situation in the Middle East. Bremmer says the Saudis’ recent execution of a prominent Shi’ite cleric started a snowball effect.

“Iran was bitterly upset, they stormed the Saudi embassy,” Bremmer said. “This was two weeks before the implementation of the Iran nuclear deal, it was literally the worst possible time for Saudi Arabia to escalate if they cared about the reactions from Americans and Europeans. Then they called their allies on the Gulf Cooperation Council to cut relations with Iran, and you know who did it? Bahrain, Sudan, and Djibouti. That’s not much of a portfolio. Saudi Arabia has become isolated because they can no longer write checks.”

The sectarian strife in the Middle East has overtaken the Israeli-Palestinian conflict as the prime source of political and economic disruption in the region.

Geopolitical risk matters, Bremmer said, not just for world leaders, but also for investors, advisors and asset managers. “When geopolitics don’t’ matter, we take on more risk and we focus more on growth, when they matter more, we focus on resilience and stability.”

Bremmer says that the world may be entering a geopolitical cycle where shifting international relations punctuated by crises will cause lasting repercussions for the global economy.

“The last time you had one was after World War II,” Bremmer said. “That was when the Americans and Europeans got together and created the Marshall Plan, NATO, IMF, the World Trade Organization, GATT; and to the extent that we have values that infuse our views of government, they were created at that time by America and Europe together. That trans-Atlantic relationship . . . is now weaker than at any point since the Marshall Plan.”

Bremmer pointed to decisions by the United Kingdom to join the China-led Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank and the French response to the 2015 Paris terrorist attacks as signs that the U.S.’s former European allies are turning away from once-dominant trans-Atlantic alliances.

“When something happened to the British or the French, since World War II they’ve turned to the Americans to write the checks, but now it’s China writing the checks,” Bremmer said.

Bremmer said the European refugee crisis caused by families fleeing war, instability and deteriorating economies in the Middle East is another pressure point on Western alliances.

“When the wall went down, Americans were there for the Germans,” Bremmer said. “Now that the walls are starting to go back up across Europe, the Americans aren’t helping, so the Germans look to Turkey to help hold back the tide of refugees in exchange for help getting into the EU faster. The relationship is a shell of what it was. Historically, we stood for democracy and Europe stood for open borders, but now we don’t know what we stand for.”

In fact, the EU’s open border policy, made official by the 1985 Schengen Agreement, is likely coming to an end, Bremmer said. “With the end of Schengen, the impact on trade is a couple hundred basis points, but the impact on income and productivity is more significant. You’re not going to see the Europe you were hoping for, you’re going to have a bunch of governments overspending on security.”

That uncertainty is driving countries into the arms of new allies such as China and Russia who have become political known quantities.

“I know what China stands for, growing its economy to ensure the survival of the regime, and Russia stands for security at home and maintaining a tight sphere of influence: a strong Kremlin and a strong Putin,” he said

Despite doubts about the strength and momentum of the Chinese economy, Bremmer offered that it isn’t yet a serious geopolitical concern.

“China’s ability to influence their markets is greater than that of any other economy in the world,” Bremmer said. “When things really get tough for China, Jack Ma will have to buckle down and support the regime or he would get into trouble. That hasn’t happened yet because it hasn’t had to, the Chinese government feels confident that they can handle a downturn without taking those kinds of measures.”

Unlike the United States, where presidential candidates are fueling political passions in a competitive election cycle, and Europe, where a new surge of fascist, nationalist and far-right parties has been fueled by reactions to the refugees, Asia and South America are relatively placid, Bremmer says.

“Everyone is playing politics, but in Asia they aren’t doing it,” Bremmer said. “These are big economies with popular leaders who for the first time are thinking long term and focusing on the economy and are trying to avoid nationalist conflicts. Asia is the largest economy in the world as a region and for now we’re not going to see geopolitical tensions raising their ugly heads.”

Bremmer also cited a pending settlement between the Columbian government and the paramilitary FARC movement, peace between Greek and Turkish Cypriots, the Iran nuclear deal, Cuba’s gradual liberalization, the fall of Myanmar’s totalitarian regime and the likely collapse of Venezuelan socialism as signs that regions formerly considered part of the third world are opening up.

“Cuba opened up to the U.S. because Venezuela can’t write checks anymore with oil revenues,” Bremmer said. “They were able to survive 50 years of sanctions, but I don’t think they can last five years of Starbucks. They’re going to be brought down by the venti (a Starbucks 20-ounce coffee drink).”

Even though emerging markets benefit from the liberalization, Bremmer said technology-driven automation will bring their development to an end.

“When you see tremendous unemployment in Europe or the U.S., you don’t see revolts, these are not starving people because you have a social safety net and family networks,” Bremmer said. “I don’t think automation has much impact on the American market, but China can’t handle a hollowing out of its middle class, and I’m not sure that Turkey, Russia, or Brazil could handle it either.”    

The news wasn’t all bad: Bremmer sounded a positive note on the impact of the tumultuous U.S. presidential race.

“Over the past few weeks I’ve met with over 20 CEOs of Fortune 100 companies,” Bremmer said. “The number who told me they would change their investment plans one iota based on who wins the presidency was zero. They don’t think that Sanders, Trump or Cruz will win the election, but even if they do, they don’t think they’re going to be able to get much done.”