Bremmer says that the world may be entering a geopolitical cycle where shifting international relations punctuated by crises will cause lasting repercussions for the global economy.

“The last time you had one was after World War II,” Bremmer said. “That was when the Americans and Europeans got together and created the Marshall Plan, NATO, IMF, the World Trade Organization, GATT; and to the extent that we have values that infuse our views of government, they were created at that time by America and Europe together. That trans-Atlantic relationship . . . is now weaker than at any point since the Marshall Plan.”

Bremmer pointed to decisions by the United Kingdom to join the China-led Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank and the French response to the 2015 Paris terrorist attacks as signs that the U.S.’s former European allies are turning away from once-dominant trans-Atlantic alliances.

“When something happened to the British or the French, since World War II they’ve turned to the Americans to write the checks, but now it’s China writing the checks,” Bremmer said.

Bremmer said the European refugee crisis caused by families fleeing war, instability and deteriorating economies in the Middle East is another pressure point on Western alliances.

“When the wall went down, Americans were there for the Germans,” Bremmer said. “Now that the walls are starting to go back up across Europe, the Americans aren’t helping, so the Germans look to Turkey to help hold back the tide of refugees in exchange for help getting into the EU faster. The relationship is a shell of what it was. Historically, we stood for democracy and Europe stood for open borders, but now we don’t know what we stand for.”

In fact, the EU’s open border policy, made official by the 1985 Schengen Agreement, is likely coming to an end, Bremmer said. “With the end of Schengen, the impact on trade is a couple hundred basis points, but the impact on income and productivity is more significant. You’re not going to see the Europe you were hoping for, you’re going to have a bunch of governments overspending on security.”

That uncertainty is driving countries into the arms of new allies such as China and Russia who have become political known quantities.

“I know what China stands for, growing its economy to ensure the survival of the regime, and Russia stands for security at home and maintaining a tight sphere of influence: a strong Kremlin and a strong Putin,” he said

Despite doubts about the strength and momentum of the Chinese economy, Bremmer offered that it isn’t yet a serious geopolitical concern.