Political upheaval around the globe is the most underestimated risk to the markets over the next five years, according to the CFA Institute 2015 Global Market Sentiment Survey released Tuesday.

The events creating risk that could affect the markets are secessionist and nationalistic movements manifesting themselves across the globe, according to the 5,259 portfolio managers, research analysts and C-suite executives worldwide who participated in the survey.

Equity market indices will make only modest gains next year, according to the respondents, with the S&P 500 predicted to climb 4.8 percent, the EuroStoxx 50 to increase 1.9 percent and the Nikkei 225 to make a 1.6 percent rise.

“The survey results show low expectations from our members for global economic growth and market performance over the next year,” says Kurt Schacht, managing director of the CFA Institute, which administers the Chartered Financial Analyst designation. “Our members are wary of sluggish developed market economic growth and the effects of political disruptions.”

On average, members expect the global economy to grow 2 percent in 2015. Respondents in India expect 5.8 percent growth in their economy, and members in China anticipate 6.2 percent growth. But members in Switzerland, Japan, France and Brazil all expect growth of less than 1 percent in their home markets, the survey says. The United States and China remain the top picks for equity market performance in the coming year, as was the case in the 2014 survey, followed this year by India and Russia. 

The survey also shows that members are concerned about ethical issues, including market fraud and the need for improved regulation and oversight of global systemic risk to improve investor trust and market integrity.

Globally, 28 percent of respondents say improved regulation and oversight of global systemic risk is the action most needed to help improve investor trust and market integrity. A higher proportion of members in Asia-Pacific (40 percent) than in Europe, the Middle East and Africa (29 percent) and the Americas (23 percent) feel this way, according to the survey.

Sixty-three percent of respondents say the lack of ethical culture within financial firms is the factor that has contributed the most to the current lack of trust in the financial industry. Better alignment of compensation with investor objectives (31 percent), a zero-tolerance policy by top management for ethical breaches (27 percent) and increased adherence to ethical codes and standards (21 percent) are the most needed firm-level actions.

“Concerns about market integrity remain at the forefront of our members’ minds,” Schacht says. “Improved oversight of global systemic risk is the most important action needed over the coming year to build trust and market integrity. This finding suggests that in the six years since the global financial crisis, the degree of cross-border cooperation between regulators with regard to detecting and mitigating systemic risk does not yet appear to be sufficient.”