Bond investors can be a gloomy bunch, glass- half-empty types who see bad news everywhere.

But they haven’t been this downbeat about growth and inflation in the U.S. economy since 2008, when the bottom fell out during the financial crisis.

That’s one view, anyway. Most economists say things are getting better, not worse. Growth is up, jobs are back and wages are poised to rise. The Federal Reserve is preparing to raise interest rates for the first time since 2006.

And yet Treasury yields keep hitting one low after another, a sign that some investors believe the broadening recovery could yet give way to a bout of deflation -- the kind that hinders investment and spending -- as oil tumbles and global growth deteriorates. One bond-market metric already suggests consumer prices will drop in the next year.

“Maybe the U.S. can’t diverge and grow on its merry way,” said William O’Donnell, the head U.S. government bond strategist at Stamford, Connecticut-based RBS Securities Inc., one of 22 dealers that trade directly with the Fed.

What’s happening in the $12.5 trillion market for Treasuries reflects a confluence of several powerful forces, not all of which necessarily spell doom for the U.S. economy.

The first is the plunging price of commodities, which may reflect greater doubt about the state of affairs outside the U.S. Crude oil has plummeted 54 percent since June, while copper slumped to its worst start to a year since 1988. That’s particularly worrying given that Europe already confronts deflation and China’s economy is cooling down.

Negative Yield

The second boils down to risk and reward. When things look dicey, investors pile into Treasuries, driving down yields.

And even now, with yields on 10-year notes falling by the most on a year-to-date basis since the 1960s, they’re higher than more than a dozen countries including Germany, Canada and Italy. In Switzerland, benchmark yields have gone negative.

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