Investors are dumping gold-backed exchange-traded products at the fastest pace since the securities were created a decade ago, mirroring the steepest price drop in 32 years.
Holdings in the 14 biggest ETPs plunged 31 percent to 1,813.7 metric tons since the start of January, the first annual decrease since the funds started trading in 2003, data compiled by Bloomberg show. The removals erased $69.5 billion in the value of the assets as prices fell by the most since 1981. A further 311 tons will be withdrawn next year, according to the median of 11 analyst estimates compiled by Bloomberg.
ETP investments reached a record $148 billion last year, helping sustain the bull market that drove a more than sixfold increase in prices since 2001 by offering a way to own bullion without needing to store it. The slump shows some investors losing faith in gold as a preserver of wealth after inflation failed to accelerate and the Federal Reserve signaled it may curb stimulus. John Paulson, the biggest investor in the largest ETP, said last month he doesn’t plan to buy more.
“All the bullish factors we had pushing gold higher in the last 12 years are now going into reverse,” said Robin Bhar, a London-based analyst at Societe Generale SA who’s ranked by Bloomberg as the most-accurate precious-metals forecaster over the past eight quarters. “There will be more ETF selling in 2014 as the price goes lower.”
Bear Market
Gold for immediate delivery fell into a bear market, defined as a drop of 20 percent or more, in April and traded at $1,236.52 an ounce at 8:21 a.m. in Singapore, down 36 percent from the September 2011 record of $1,921.15. Only corn and silver fell more this year among the 24 commodities tracked by the Standard & Poor’s GSCI Spot Index, which slipped 3.6 percent. The MSCI All-Country World Index advanced 15 percent and the Bloomberg Treasury Bond Index lost 2.8 percent.
Goldman Sachs Group Inc. called bullion a “slam-dunk” sell in October and said it was among the bank’s most bearish commodity forecasts for next year. Bullion may average $1,216 in 2014, the least since 2009, according to the median of 14 analyst forecasts compiled by Bloomberg. Hedge funds and other large speculators were the least-bullish since June 2007 in the week to Dec. 3, Commodity Futures Trading Commission data show.
ETP sales of more than 800 tons since the start of January, including by billionaire George Soros, exceeded total purchases in the previous three years. Paulson & Co. cut its holdings in the SPDR Gold Trust, the biggest ETP, by half in the second quarter, while Soros and Third Point LLC’s Daniel Loeb sold their entire stakes.
Inflation Hedge
Investors see less need for “disaster insurance,” Fed Chairman Ben S. Bernanke told U.S. lawmakers on July 18. Traditionally, investors turn to gold in times of turmoil as an alternative store of wealth to equities and the dollar and as an inflation hedge. Until 2003, most held gold bars, coins or jewelry in vaults or bought futures and options.