Prices slumped in September as the decline in equity markets obliged some investors to sell their bullion to cover those losses. Global stocks slipped to the lowest level in almost three weeks yesterday.

"The major risk is that a sharp decline in global stock markets will lead to renewed margin calls and fund liquidations," said Adrian Day, president of Adrian Day Asset Management in Annapolis, Maryland. That may prompt "many managers to sell gold, a highly liquid asset."

Gold may reach $1,950 by the end of the first quarter, according to the median estimate of eight of the 10 most- accurate forecasters tracked by Bloomberg over the past two years. The survey was carried out at the end of October.

Technical indicators suggest the rally that began in September has further to go. While gold jumped 15 percent since reaching an 11-week low Sept. 26, its 14-day relative-strength index is at 57, below the level of 70 that indicates to some who study technical charts that the metal is poised to drop.

Gold priced in euros is doing even better, rising 4.4 percent this month compared with a 2.5 percent gain for dollar- denominated bullion. Dennis Gartman, the Suffolk, Virginia-based economist and editor of the Gartman Letter, owns gold priced in euros and wrote yesterday that it reduces volatility.

Commodities as measured by the S&P GSCI gauge are heading for their weakest performance since 2008. Demand for everything from crude oil to aluminum to wheat contracted that year as nations contended with the worst global recession since World War II. The International Monetary Fund is anticipating no return to that slump, forecasting economic growth of 4 percent in 2012, unchanged from this year.

Eleven of 21 traders and analysts surveyed by Bloomberg expect copper to fall next week. The metal for delivery in three months, the London Metal Exchange's benchmark contract, declined 21 percent to $7,540 a ton this year.

Nine Surveyed

Raw-sugar futures dropped 12 percent since reaching a one- month high on Oct. 17 to 24.98 cents a pound on ICE Futures U.S. in New York. Prices declined 22 percent this year. Six of nine people surveyed expect prices to drop next week.

Eighteen of 30 surveyed anticipate declines in soybeans. Out of 29 corn traders and analysts, 11 said prices will rise and the same amount predicted a retreat. Corn increased 2.7 percent to $6.46 a bushel in Chicago this year, while soybeans fell 16 percent to $11.7175 a bushel.