On the flip side, the final manufacturing PMI reading from HSBC and Markit Economics deteriorated in April.
This year and next will be the bottom for China’s economic growth, with stabilization from 2017, according to fifth-ranked forecaster Zhu Qibing of China Minzu Securities in Beijing.
Paris-based Yao Wei of Societe Generale SA, ranked third by Bloomberg, says the economy is fluctuating around a long-term downward trend and expects growth for the whole year of 6.8 percent. She said forecasting from a different continent can help cut the noise of daily news flow.
“Policy makers understand growth has to come down,” Yao said. “So although they will take measures to avoid a hard landing, at the end of the day they will still let deceleration continue.”
Growth has dipped below the leadership’s 2015 target of about 7 percent, according to Bloomberg’s monthly GDP tracker, which pegs it at 6.35 percent in March. Anticipation of more easing to stem the slowdown has helped stoke a rally in stocks in the past two months.
“I am not as pessimistic as some China bears about growth prospects,” said second-ranked Lian Ping, chief economist at Bank of Communications Co. in Shanghai. “It’s not necessary to revise our forecasts for China’s headline GDP growth in 2015 -- the range between 7 percent and 7.2 percent is still quite possible.”