Stocks were little changed today as European finance ministers gathered in Brussels to discuss new budget rules and a Greek debt swap. The Standard & Poor's 500 Index rose 0.1 percent to 1,317 at 9:40 a.m. in New York.

French business confidence unexpectedly fell in January to the lowest in almost two years, providing the latest sign that Europe's second-largest economy is mired in a recession, figures from the statistics office Insee showed today in Paris.

Elsewhere, prices paid by Australian producers decelerated in the October through December period for a third straight quarter, boosting scope for the central bank to lower borrowing costs next month, data from the Bureau of Statistics showed in Sydney.

The U.S. seasonal distortions are most acute for the jobless rate, according to a report by Tilton issued Jan. 13. The shift moves the rate by about a tenth of a point per month on average relative to the adjustment before the crisis, he said. The influence is most positive from November through January, Tilton's research showed.

Jobless Rate

The overcompensation probably accounts for about 0.2 percentage point of the 0.4-point drop in the jobless rate over the past two months, according to Zentner's calculations.

Economists at Goldman Sachs forecast unemployment will average 8.5 percent this year, unchanged from December's reading. Nomura's estimate is 8.4 percent. Zentner and Tilton agree that data on GDP aren't affected by the seasonal issues.

In addition to the unemployment rate, the other indicators that show a marked influence include retail sales, consumer prices excluding food and fuel costs and the total number of people on jobless benefit rolls, Tilton said.

Chris Rupkey is among those who are more optimistic.

"Forecasters have moved too far to the other side of the boat, they've gone too pessimistic," said Rupkey, chief financial economist at Bank of Tokyo-Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd. in New York, who forecasts unemployment will average 8 percent this year. "The data is surprising to the upside and that leads us to believe the entire year will surprise the market."