The price of oil, which is trading at its lowest level in 12 years, will continue falling during the first quarter of 2016 and stocks are likely to follow, entering bear market territory, according to Scott Minerd, who oversees $240 billion for Guggenheim Partners.
“Look for more downside for oil, equities and credit,” Minerd said in an e-mail. “The first quarter is going to be rough but ultimately we should see this as a buying opportunity.”
Global stock markets slumped in the first week of 2016 as concern about China sent shock waves around the world. U.S. and European stock markets fluctuated on Monday, while Asia was down. Oil continued to trade lower.
Minerd’s outlook isn’t shared by everyone. Pacific Investment Management Co., which manages $1.5 trillion, expects oil prices to rebound to more than $50 a barrel by the end of this year as global production subsides, according to Scott Mather, co-manager of the Pimco Total Return Fund. Others predict bigger declines, with Morgan Stanley seeing oil drop as low as $20 a barrel, according to a research note today.
Minerd’s $3.3 billion Guggenheim Macro Opportunities Fund fell 1.1 percent in 2015, outperforming 73 percent of its Bloomberg peers and 44 percent of its Morningstar Inc. peers. The $2.1 billion Guggenheim Total Return Bond Fund gained 1 percent last year, outperforming 91 percent of Bloomberg peers and 88 percent of Morningstar’s.
Minerd expects stocks to fall as much as 15 percent and junk bonds to drop 5 percent as concerns about the energy and commodity sectors ripple through markets. Emerging market equities and currencies will also face downside pressure, he said.
“The worst is yet to come,” he said.