Rodriguez told clients in 2009 that if the U.S. government didn't get its finances in order, the nation would face a crisis in three to seven years that could rival the financial meltdown of 2008.
Music May Stop
"I haven't changed my opinion," Rodriguez said. He believes the next crisis could be triggered by investors balking at buying U.S. debt, which in turn could cause the dollar to plummet and interest rates to soar.
"You never know when the music is going to stop," Rodriguez said.
Rodriguez, 62, ran the $1.4 billion FPA Capital Fund from 1984 through 2009, when he left on a one-year sabbatical. In addition to CEO, he's an advisor to the funds at First Pacific, which manages $16 billion. In the 25 years ended Dec. 31, 2009, FPA Capital gained 15% a year, better than all diversified U.S. stock mutual funds, Morningstar data show.
Rodriguez isn't alone in warning that the next crisis could involve government debt.
"The global economy is in a period between two crises," Greenlight's Einhorn said in a December interview with Charlie Rose. Einhorn's New York-based firm manages $6.8 billion and profited from betting against Lehman Brothers Holdings Inc.
'Tough Spot'
The debt problems that caused the 2008 crisis have shifted from the private to the public sector without being addressed, Einhorn told Rose. The combination of "a very large budget deficit and a monetary policy that is extremely easy" could eventually bring the economy "to a tough spot," Einhorn said.
The Federal Reserve has kept its benchmark lending rate at between zero and 0.25% since December 2008. Einhorn declined to be interviewed.