Social Security benefits could be cut by 25 percent starting in 2033 without changes to the system, the program’s trustees warned Monday in an annual review.

Cuts for disability recipients may be much more imminent. Disability payments to individuals could be reduced by 19 percent starting in the last three months of 2016, a trustee report said.

U.S. Treasury Department Secretary Jack Lew indicated he expects Congress to avoid disability cuts by shifting money from the Old Age and Survivors Insurance Trust Fund to the disability fund as it has done before.

He noted Social Security overall remains fundamentally secure, but warned that Congress must make manageable changes now to avoid making drastic changes later.

To keep Social Security benefits and disability payments stable long term, payroll taxes would have to be increased from the current 12.40 percent to 15.23 percent, according to the trustee’s report.

One in five Americans currently receive Social Security payments and nearly 95 percent will in their lifetimes. By the end of last year, the Social Security rolls included 41 million retirees and their dependents, 6 million survivors of deceased workers and 11 million disabled individuals and their dependents.

Increased longevity and the immense size of the Baby Boomer generation are speeding  the depletion of the trust account that helps pay for the old age and disability benefits.

The funding problem is exacerbated because the lower birth rates among Boomers, GenXers and millennials are projected to lower the number of workers per Social Security and disability beneficiary by more than 25 percent––to 2 from 2.8 by 2035

Social Security trustees noted in their review that Medicare hospital insurance benefits are projected to decline by 15 percent in 2030 and keep shrinking by 25 percent by 2050.

Lower health-care spending in 2013 has extended the full life of the Medicare hospital insurance program from 2026 to 2030. Lew said Obamacare could take much of the credit for health-care spending rising less last year than the overall inflation rate.

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