Bus and rail fees increased 9 percent in October to bridge a $120 million funding gap. In addition to back wages and other potential contract costs, the agency faces higher Amtrak infrastructure fees and, starting July 1, the loss of a $295 million budget windfall from Access to the Region’s Core, the Manhattan rail tunnel canceled in 2010 by New Jersey Republican Governor Chris Christie.

In a Feb. 17 letter to Martin, nine Democratic New Jersey congressmen said they were “sympathetic to the financial situation” of New Jersey Transit, but that it should have faith in the $305 billion transportation bill, signed by Obama on Dec. 4, for some of its needs. “A labor strike or lockout by management are both avoidable,” the letter stated, and urged the railroad to resolve the issues.

Marty Robins, chief negotiator for New Jersey Transit during the 1983 strike, said the labor issues are thornier this time, with riders caught between a long-expired contract and a potential budget hit.

“This is an emergency situation,” he said in an interview. “You can’t try to jam any huge number of people into the Port Authority, and you still have the Lincoln Tunnel issue.”

New Jersey Transit has a spotty history of handling special events and emergencies.

When the National Football League’s premier annual game took place at MetLife Stadium in East Rutherford in 2014, the agency called it the “first mass-transit Super Bowl,” with plans to transport as many as 13,500 fans by rail. Instead, three times as many bought tickets, and thousands were left waiting at the stadium for hours when the train line was overwhelmed and back-up buses were sent elsewhere.

Another time, New Jersey Transit, defying a consultant’s warning, stashed a third of its rail fleet in low-lying yards as Hurricane Sandy approached in October 2012. Flooding caused at least $120 million in damage.

In the event of another long-term rail interruption, such as the closing of one or both Amtrak tunnels beneath the Hudson River, New Jersey Transit is counting on about one-third of commuters to work from home, and the rest to go by bus or ferry. As the strike deadline nears, Phelan, the mass-transit advocate and a daily bus commuter, says he’s becoming increasingly skeptical about the agency’s preparations.

“They have this fantasy that everyone can work from home for a few days, like it’s ‘The Jetsons,”’ he said, referring to the cartoon depicting Space Age automation and efficiency. “Believe me, if I could do that, I’d be doing it already.”

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