Sinn Fein increased its share of the vote to 10 percent, its best ever result in the party’s current form. Since then, there’s been another shuffling of the political cards. Some 26 percent of voters now support Sinn Fein, a poll published by the Sunday Independent showed on Nov. 1. The survey of 990 people was taken on Oct. 21-31, as protests against new water charges spread across the country.

Deflecting History

Two demonstrations against water charges have each drawn more than 100,000 people, with another planned for next week. Environment Minister Alan Kelly received death threats over the charge, while last month, Deputy Prime Minister Joan Burton was struck in the face with a water balloon by demonstrators in west Dublin who had trapped her in her car for hours.

Sinn Fein “have capitalized on, and articulated, the public’s fear on water charges,” said Paul Moran, analyst at Millward Brown, which conducted the poll published last month. “Their Teflon-esque ability to deflect attention from the past is as strong as ever.”

Yet analysts warn against reading too much into the rise of Sinn Fein in opinion polls. The party typically struggles to get its supporters in the south of Ireland to polling stations, and also tends not to attract the second-preferences of voters often needed to win seats under the Irish electoral system.

Locked Out

Moreover, the chances are growing that the country’s two establishment parties, Fianna Fail and Fine Gael, may join forces to keep Sinn Fein out of power. That’s the most likely outcome of the 2016 election, according to Paddy Power Plc, followed by a coalition including Sinn Fein.

While the mainstream parties have had little leeway to diverge from the budget cuts prescribed by the EU, International Monetary Fund and European Central Bank, Sinn Fein has been able to send a different message. It plans to introduce a third rate of tax of 48 percent on income over 100,000 euros and slap a 1 percent wealth tax on millionaires.

“People are disillusioned and battered,” said Neil Gibson, professor of economics at the University of Ulster. “Sinn Fein are saying things that are absolutely going to be popular, but the question is do the maths add up.”

Easter Rising