After Hillary Clinton clinched victory to become the Democratic Party’s presumptive nominee for president on Monday, the U.S. is slated for one of the ugliest general elections in recent history, said a financial industry political analyst.

In the matchup between Clinton and presumptive Republican nominee Donald Trump, personality and temperament will drive the rhetoric, but economic and market conditions could also influence the campaign, said Greg Valliere, chief political strategist with Charlotte, N.C.-based Horizon Investments, said during an interview with Financial Advisor on Tuesday.

“The economy right now doesn’t help Hillary. The strongest thing she has going for her is the growing perception that Trump is not fit to be president,” Valliere said. “This is going to be an exceptionally negative campaign.”

He said that Clinton has the advantage as long as her negative approval ratings remain lower than Trump’s, but an ongoing investigation into her personal e-mail servers and an unsteady economy could turn the tide.

The economy has already thrown a wrench in electoral conventional wisdom, said Valliere. In November, addressing attendees at the Schwab IMPACT 2015 conference, he predicted that Hillary would clinch the nomination after the early primaries and that Trump would fade away.

“If you want an analogy or microcosm of what happened, it was Indiana,” Valliere said. “In Indiana, you had so much anger over big chunks of money leaving the economy to Mexico or overseas that Sanders and Trump were able to take advantage. The anxiety over the economy was greater than I or a lot of people thought, and here we are. This has gone on a lot longer than I had anticipated.”

While economic indicators remain poor, Hillary can’t run on the status quo, which makes her campaign vulnerable to Trump’s populism, he said.

Yet rather than seizing momentum, Trump’s campaign is mired in damage control over some of his recent public statements, said Valliere.

“He’s suffering from self-inflicted wounds,” he said. “Trump’s said outrageous things and he’s squandered his momentum—he could have played off of the weak employment numbers and GDP, but he hasn’t been able to take advantage of it.”

The U.S. economy added just 38,000 jobs in May, according to a Labor Department report released last week that also revised April’s job growth downward. That followed reports of slower-than-predicted GDP growth from the Federal Reserve.

For Clinton, the poor numbers make it more essential that her primary opponent, Vermont Sen. Bernie Sanders, withdraw and endorse her.

“Nancy Pelosi has already endorsed her and I presume that Obama will endorse her in a day or two,” Valliere said. “Clinton really needs Sanders to enthusiastically endorse her, otherwise a lot of his passionate young supporters will stay home in November. A lot of his younger supporters believe the deck was stacked against him and he sought to reinforce that view. If his endorsement is tepid, these young people will stay home. But I don’t buy the view that they will support Donald Trump.”

Valliere said that unless Trump can make inroads against Clinton in rust belt states like Ohio, Michigan or Pennsylvania, he won’t be able to overcome her advantage among women and Hispanic voters.

While the economy is likely to influence the campaigns through the summer months, the candidates will pivot back towards appeals based on personality closer to election day, says Valliere.

“As we get into October, the big issue will be ‘who do you trust to have their finger on the nuclear button,” Valliere said. “Even with all this angst over the economy and a desire to get somebody outside of Washington into the White House, I think that argument favors Hillary.”

If Trump is viewed as unelectable, wealthy Republican campaign donors may remain sidelined in the presidential race, focusing on congressional campaigns instead, said Valliere.

“That’s going to be a big factor,” he said. “A lot of major Republican money is going to Senate races and that’s important because right now you have a Senate that possibly could go back to the Democrats, while the House is likely to stay with the GOP.

“A divided government is not a bad scenario for financial markets," he added. "The markets could live with a Hillary presidency and a divided congress. There’s clearly some anxiety over the Trump presidency because of all the uncertainties with the Fed and with trade. On the other hand, if Clinton won in a landslide that brought the House back to the Democrats, you’d have Clinton, Nancy Pelosi as speaker and Chuck Schumer (D-N.Y.) as Senate majority leader. That’s not a scenario that the market would like, either.”