Already, competition between potential issuers is hotting up, with London and New York have recently seen swathes of roadshows by governments, testing investors' appetite for new bond sales.

But most investors dismiss fears of a huge rise in defaults, especially if the U.S. dollar––which has risen 22 percent in the last two years––fails to strengthen further.

In a world of rock-bottom interest rates, that would keep investors keen on yields provided by emerging bonds, they say.

"I don't think deterioration will go very fast from here, especially if you expect that the over-reaction of the dollar is over, which will make interest payments (feasible) for companies," said Sergio Trigo Paz, head of emerging debt at BlackRock.

And with most developed central banks some time away from tightening policy, global borrowing costs are likely to remain low, with 10-year U.S. Treasury yields––the reference point for most emerging debt––still below 2 percent.

"With yields at these levels I don't see huge problems in refinancing ... default rates are likely to remain low," said Steve Ellis, a fund manager at Fidelity International.
But a sticking point could be credit quality.

Standard Bank data shows 34 percent of the debt maturing in the next five years is junk-rated while another 8 percent is unrated. Issuers may face a hard slog.

"At the top level we are saying 'yes we need yield' because (developed) central banks are pushing us into that, but we are doing it more prudently," said Salman Ahmed, chief global strategist at Lombard Odier

"Investors will be more nuanced about which credits we give money to because the time for blind yield-grab is over."
 

First « 1 2 3 » Next