(Bloomberg News) JetBlue Airways Corp. became the first large airline to reshuffle its schedule ahead of Hurricane Irene's East Coast landfall, canceling 882 flights from tomorrow through Aug. 29.
Most of the flights are at New York's John F. Kennedy airport, the carrier's biggest base, and in Boston on Aug. 28-29, said Allison Steinberg, a spokeswoman. That's when high winds and heavy rains are expected to sweep through the U.S. Northeast.
Irene is forecast to plow through the busiest airspace in the U.S., threatening operations at carriers including United Continental Holdings Inc. and Delta Air Lines Inc. The storm's projected track runs past New York City, Boston, Washington and Philadelphia, home to a total of seven major airports.
"You're affecting all the major airports on the northeastern seaboard," said David Swierenga, a former chief economist at the Air Transport Association trade group who now runs consultant AeroEcon in Round Rock, Texas. "The number of flights that they have at those airports per day is very high. I expect this will be a major disruption."
More cancellations will follow JetBlue's as Irene's approach allows airlines to pinpoint airports at the most risk. The industry's preparations will include relocating planes out of harm's way, a step that minimizes damage while adding to the complexity of resuming normal schedules after a storm.
'Scattering and Scrambling'
"They'll be doing a lot of scattering and scrambling," said Robert W. Mann, a former American Airlines executive who owns consultant R.W. Mann & Co. in Port Washington, New York. "That usually means flying the last trip out before the arrival of the storm and not flying in until airfield conditions are able to support it."
Projected costs from air-traffic interruptions are among those used by Kinetic Analysis Corp. in estimating $20 billion in overall economic losses from Irene, including missed work time, power failures and shipping disruptions. The firm forecast $13.9 billion in insured losses.
The last storm of this magnitude to menace the Northeast was 1985's Hurricane Gloria, which killed 11 people and caused $900 million in damage. Irene is on a similar track, potentially affecting all six of the largest U.S. airlines, a group led by United, Delta and AMR Corp.'s American.
Regional Hubs
Like JetBlue, Delta has a hub at Kennedy, and United's Continental Airlines flies from New Jersey's Newark Liberty. Together with New York's LaGuardia, the three airports form the busiest U.S. aviation market with nearly 104 million passengers last year, according to Airports Council International.
Sandwiching that airspace is Philadelphia, where US Airways Group Inc. has a hub and Southwest Airlines Co. is the second- biggest operator; Washington, home to United's hub at Dulles airport and a US Airways base at Ronald Reagan National; and Boston, where JetBlue is the largest tenant.
Delays in the area can ripple across the entire U.S. air- traffic control system.
Since Gloria, airlines also have expanded overseas service in New York, so Irene may affect trans-Atlantic routes as well. American and joint-venture partner British Airways began hourly London departures from Kennedy each evening this year.
European Airlines
BA, Deutsche Lufthansa AG, and Air France-KLM, Europe's three largest carriers, said today that Irene hasn't yet disrupted U.S. operations.
"We are continuing with our flight schedule as published," said Thomas Jachnow, a Frankfurt-based Lufthansa spokesman. "We have a close eye on the situation and if necessary we will change on a short-term basis."
Irene's approach spurred carriers to begin letting fliers reschedule trips without penalty to and from storm-affected cities, and U.S. airlines canceled about 180 flights yesterday. The tally mounted this week as Irene moved through the Caribbean and the Bahamas, with about 300 total cancellations so far.
Dropping fees for changing reservations helps airlines by getting passengers rebooked before any weather disruptions. Carriers typically wait to scrap flights until several hours or a day before storms such as hurricanes or blizzards.
"As forecasting hurricanes and their paths is an imprecise science, we try to hold those decisions so as to disrupt as few passengers as possible," Ed Martelle, a spokesman for Fort Worth, Texas-based American, said in an e-mail.
Air Freight
FedEx Corp., operator of the world's largest cargo airline, and United Parcel Service Inc., the biggest package-delivery company, were monitoring their East Coast air and ground operations to decide on storm preparations, spokesmen said yesterday.
The Northeast's concentration of airport hubs makes Irene a bigger threat for cancellations than a storm striking the southeast U.S. or states adjoining the Gulf of Mexico, where hurricanes are common.
Those regions have only two hubs near the coast, Continental's in Houston and American's in Miami. New Orleans, ravaged by Hurricane Katrina in 2005, was only the 43rd-busiest U.S. airport by departing passengers in the year ended in May, according to the Bureau of Transportation Statistics.
Winds and rain may not be airlines' only challenge from Irene. Power failures, common in hurricanes, also may keep airline employees from getting to airports to restart service once the worst of the storm passes, said Mann, the consultant. Flight crews may also have trouble commuting to work by plane from other cities where they live.
Aircraft also are flying with record numbers of full seats, especially at the end of the U.S. summer vacation season, making it difficult for passengers on grounded flights to find new seats after the storm moves through.
"We're at a peak of a peak month, right before the Labor Day holiday, which will make it very difficult to reaccommodate customers on canceled flights," Mann said.