What a difference eight years makes.
On March 9, 2009, the S&P 500 reached 676.53, its lowest point in the financial crisis. Today, the index is comfortably over 2,300, and many analysts expect a continued bull run into the future.
Yet an eight-year bull market is in itself extraordinary, says Omar Aguilar.
“The average bull market cycle runs from three to five years. This one is remarkable in that it has been extended to eight years,” says Aguilar, senior vice president and CIO for equities and multi-asset strategies at Charles Schwab Investment Management. “The biggest difference is that this bull market came as the result of the deep financial crisis, triggered a significant amount of intervention, and that intervention maintained a floor for the market to continue to run until now.”
The S&P 500 gained more than 250 percent between the 2009 bottom and March 27, 2017, with 400 of its constituents at least doubling in value during that period.
Some industry sectors outpaced the S&P 500—for example, the MSCI U.S. Investable Market Consumer Discretionary Index grew by nearly 400 percent.
“It was a new economy rally,” says David Lafferty, senior vice president and chief market strategist at Natixis Global Asset Management. “Internet retail, e-media companies, health-care technology, information technology and consumer discretionary—these were the best places to be.”
Eight percent of the S&P 500’s constituents, 40 stocks all told, returned at least 1,000 percent since the crisis bottom, while the best-performing stock of the bull market, General Growth Properties (GGP), experienced an increase in share price of more than 7,500 percent. Popular large-cap stocks like Expedia, Ulta Beauty, priceline.com and Netflix were also listed among the fastest growers.
The worst performing companies come from the slowest-growing sectors: Energy, utilities and consumer staples have underperformed the S&P 500 over the past eight years.
The impact of government and central bank interventions clearly affected the performance of several sectors.
“The primacy of monetary policy in particular in response to the crisis and the recovery has been historic,” says Stephen Wood, chief market strategist at Russell Investments. “It would be difficult to argue that any other factor has been as impactful as the policies of the Federal Reserve.”
For example, if returns between January 1, 2007, and December 31, 2016, were considered, consumer staples would become one of the best-performing sectors in the economy because of their remarkable run during the financial crisis as more investors sought defensive investments. If returns between March 9, 2009, and November 2016 were considered, the financial sector would appear among the worst performers, as it was buoyed by two recent interest-rate hikes and expectations for tax and regulatory reform.
Certain styles have also outperformed the vanilla benchmark indexes over the past eight years. Small and mid-cap stocks, for instance, have outperformed since the financial crisis.
Geography has made a difference as well, with emerging markets outperforming the U.S. and other developed markets, says Aguilar, but it’s difficult to determine where the U.S. is in the business cycle—and the chances for a market top and downturn—when you look at equity performance alone.
“Right now, the equity market is clearly hoping that the new presidential administration will provide infrastructure spending, tax reform and deregulation,” says Aguilar. “The market believes this and it is pricing in the expectation, but the data itself shows that the economy is not nearly as strong as people may think, and it’s hard to support current market valuations when you see the economic data.”
While it’s possible the remarkable bull run will continue, inflated valuations may cap potential returns across the short- and mid-term, says Lafferty.
“It isn’t statistically possible to get the multiple expansion we’ve had over the last eight years to continue,” says Lafferty. “While earnings are up dramatically, price-earning multiples are up just as dramatically. The price of the S&P 500 since the bottom has increased by almost 17 percent on an annualized basis. That won’t continue. We think the return on equity will be positive, but it won’t be very much.”
According to Lafferty, the S&P 500 currently trades at an 18x price-to-forward-earnings ratio—while company earnings will likely be positive, they’re not going to drive equity gains moving forward.
The better bet for equity investors and their advisors, according to Wood, is to concentrate on diversification rather than attempting to select winners and losers themselves.
“A broadly diversified, multi-asset strategy is for almost all investors a responsible starting point,” Wood says. “A disciplined, well-researched security selection married to a diverse set of asset classes is what we think is most helpful for investors over the long term.”
These are the bull market's 100 best performing stocks:
1. GGP - GGP Inc.
March 9, 2009 Price: $0.29
March 27, 2017 Price: $22.72
Price Change: $22.43
Percent Change: 7,654.7%
2. ULTA - Ulta Beauty Inc.
March 9, 2009 Price: $4.29
March 27, 2017 Price: $280.14
Price Change: $275.85
Percent Change: 6,430.1%
3. URI - United Rentals Inc.
March 9, 2009 Price: $3.03
March 27, 2017 Price: $119.56
Price Change: $116.53
Percent Change: 3,845.9%
4. REGN - Regeneron Pharmaceuticals Inc.
March 9, 2009 Price: $12.40
March 27, 2017 Price: $383.68
Price Change: $371.28
Percent Change: 2,994.2%
5. ALK - Alaska Air Group Inc.
March 9, 2009 Price: $3.49
March 27, 2017 Price: $95.00
Price Change: $91.52
Percent Change: 2,626.0%
6. WYN - Wyndham Worldwide Corporation
March 9, 2009 Price: $3.10
March 27, 2017 Price: $83.98
Price Change: $80.88
Percent Change: 2,609.0%
7. NFLX - Netflix Inc.
March 9, 2009 Price: $5.50
March 27, 2017 Price: $144.06
Price Change: $138.56
Percent Change: 2,519.3%
8. PCLN - Priceline Group Inc.
March 9, 2009 Price: $78.36
March 27, 2017 Price: $1,772.00
Price Change: $1,693.64
Percent Change: 2,161.4%
9. CBS - CBS Corporation Class B
March 9, 2009 Price: $3.09
March 27, 2017 Price: $67.49
Price Change: $64.40
Percent Change: 2,084.1%
10. QRVO - Qorvo Inc.
March 9, 2009 Price: $3.20
March 27, 2017 Price: $68.37
Price Change: $65.17
Percent Change: 2,036.6%
11. EXPE - Expedia Inc.
March 9, 2009 Price: $6.01
March 27, 2017 Price: $127.80
Price Change: $121.79
Percent Change: 2,026.6%
12. UAL - United Continental Holdings Inc.
March 9, 2009 Price: $3.84
March 27, 2017 Price: $68.37
Price Change: $64.53
Percent Change: 1,680.5%
13. FITB - Fifth Third Bancorp
March 9, 2009 Price: $1.39
March 27, 2017 Price: $24.73
Price Change: $23.34
Percent Change: 1,679.1%
14. RCL - Royal Caribbean Cruises Ltd.
March 9, 2009 Price: $5.81
March 27, 2017 Price: $99.28
Price Change: $93.47
Percent Change: 1,608.8%
15. TGNA - TEGNA Inc.
March 9, 2009 Price: $1.56
March 27, 2017 Price: $25.42
Price Change: $23.86
Percent Change: 1,530.5%
16. PXD - Pioneer Natural Resources Company
March 9, 2009 Price: $12.10
March 27, 2017 Price: $180.40
Price Change: $168.30
Percent Change: 1,390.9%
17. EXR - Extra Space Storage Inc.
March 9, 2009 Price: $5.13
March 27, 2017 Price: $74.46
Price Change: $69.33
Percent Change: 1,351.5%
18. STX - Seagate Technology PLC
March 9, 2009 Price: $3.14
March 27, 2017 Price: $44.91
Price Change: $41.77
Percent Change: 1,330.3%
19. AMZN - Amazon.com Inc.
March 9, 2009 Price: $60.49
March 27, 2017 Price: $846.82
Price Change: $786.33
Percent Change: 1,299.9%
20. SWKS - Skyworks Solutions Inc.
March 9, 2009 Price: $6.95
March 27, 2017 Price: $97.19
Price Change: $90.24
Percent Change: 1,298.4%
21. SBUX - Starbucks Corporation
March 9, 2009 Price: $4.14
March 27, 2017 Price: $57.23
Price Change: $53.10
Percent Change: 1,284.0%
22. HBI - Hanesbrands Inc.
March 9, 2009 Price: $1.54
March 27, 2017 Price: $20.46
Price Change: $18.93
Percent Change: 1,232.9%
23. MHK - Mohawk Industries Inc.
March 9, 2009 Price: $17.11
March 27, 2017 Price: $227.63
Price Change: $210.52
Percent Change: 1,230.4%
24. NVDA - NVIDIA Corporation
March 9, 2009 Price: $8.30
March 27, 2017 Price: $108.25
Price Change: $99.95
Percent Change: 1,204.2%
25. DFS - Discover Financial Services
March 9, 2009 Price: $5.21
March 27, 2017 Price: $66.79
Price Change: $61.58
Percent Change: 1,182.0%
26. STZ - Constellation Brands Inc. Class A
March 9, 2009 Price: $12.77
March 27, 2017 Price: $163.68
Price Change: $150.91
Percent Change: 1,181.8%
27. LNC - Lincoln National Corporation
March 9, 2009 Price: $5.01
March 27, 2017 Price: $63.47
Price Change: $58.46
Percent Change: 1,166.9%
28. XL - XL Group Ltd
March 9, 2009 Price: $3.21
March 27, 2017 Price: $40.00
Price Change: $36.79
Percent Change: 1,146.1%
29. CBG - CBRE Group Inc. Class A
March 9, 2009 Price: $2.71
March 27, 2017 Price: $33.70
Price Change: $30.99
Percent Change: 1,143.5%
30. UAA - Under Armour Inc. Class A
March 9, 2009 Price: $1.61
March 27, 2017 Price: $19.86
Price Change: $18.25
Percent Change: 1,136.2%
31. HBAN - Huntington Bancshares Incorporated
March 9, 2009 Price: $1.08
March 27, 2017 Price: $13.02
Price Change: $11.94
Percent Change: 1,105.6%
32. AAPL - Apple Inc.
March 9, 2009 Price: $11.87
March 27, 2017 Price: $140.88
Price Change: $129.01
Percent Change: 1,086.6%
33. HAR - Harman International Industries Incorporated
March 9, 2009 Price: $9.41
March 27, 2017 Price: $111.50
Price Change: $102.09
Percent Change: 1,084.9%
34. TXT - Textron Inc.
March 9, 2009 Price: $3.98
March 27, 2017 Price: $46.36
Price Change: $42.38
Percent Change: 1,064.8%
35. IP - International Paper Company
March 9, 2009 Price: $4.34
March 27, 2017 Price: $50.27
Price Change: $45.93
Percent Change: 1,058.9%
36. HIG - Hartford Financial Services Group Inc.
March 9, 2009 Price: $4.10
March 27, 2017 Price: $47.45
Price Change: $43.35
Percent Change: 1,057.3%
37. SLG - SL Green Realty Corp.
March 9, 2009 Price: $9.35
March 27, 2017 Price: $105.52
Price Change: $96.17
Percent Change: 1,028.6%
38. MU - Micron Technology Inc.
March 9, 2009 Price: $2.58
March 27, 2017 Price: $28.76
Price Change: $26.18
Percent Change: 1,014.7%
39. DAL - Delta Air Lines Inc.
March 9, 2009 Price: $4.19
March 27, 2017 Price: $46.10
Price Change: $41.92
Percent Change: 1,001.6%
40. CI - Cigna Corporation
March 9, 2009 Price: $13.61
March 27, 2017 Price: $146.04
Price Change: $132.43
Percent Change: 973.0%
41. CRM - Salesforce.com Inc.
March 9, 2009 Price: $7.72
March 27, 2017 Price: $81.61
Price Change: $73.89
Percent Change: 956.8%
42. PFG - Principal Financial Group Inc.
March 9, 2009 Price: $5.88
March 27, 2017 Price: $62.11
Price Change: $56.23
Percent Change: 956.3%
43. NWL - Newell Brands Inc.
March 9, 2009 Price: $4.54
March 27, 2017 Price: $47.71
Price Change: $43.17
Percent Change: 950.9%
44. MAS - Masco Corporation
March 9, 2009 Price: $3.23
March 27, 2017 Price: $33.74
Price Change: $30.51
Percent Change: 945.7%
45. AIG - American International Group Inc.
March 9, 2009 Price: $5.86
March 27, 2017 Price: $60.93
Price Change: $55.07
Percent Change: 939.0%
46. MTD - Mettler-Toledo International Inc.
March 9, 2009 Price: $46.75
March 27, 2017 Price: $478.94
Price Change: $432.19
Percent Change: 924.5%
47. LUV - Southwest Airlines Co.
March 9, 2009 Price: $5.17
March 27, 2017 Price: $52.88
Price Change: $47.71
Percent Change: 922.8%
48. HUM - Humana Inc.
March 9, 2009 Price: $19.97
March 27, 2017 Price: $203.48
Price Change: $183.51
Percent Change: 918.9%
49. COO - Cooper Companies Inc.
March 9, 2009 Price: $19.75
March 27, 2017 Price: $199.82
Price Change: $180.07
Percent Change: 911.7%
50. DOW - Dow Chemical Company
March 9, 2009 Price: $6.33
March 27, 2017 Price: $64.02
Price Change: $57.69
Percent Change: 911.4%
51. TEL - TE Connectivity Ltd.
March 9, 2009 Price: $7.44
March 27, 2017 Price: $74.46
Price Change: $67.02
Percent Change: 900.8%
52. TMK - Torchmark Corporation
March 9, 2009 Price: $7.70
March 27, 2017 Price: $76.34
Price Change: $68.64
Percent Change: 891.1%
53. SIG - Signet Jewelers Limited
March 9, 2009 Price: $7.03
March 27, 2017 Price: $69.66
Price Change: $62.63
Percent Change: 890.9%
54. AYI - Acuity Brands Inc.
March 9, 2009 Price: $20.23
March 27, 2017 Price: $198.59
Price Change: $178.36
Percent Change: 881.7%
55. COF - Capital One Financial Corporation
March 9, 2009 Price: $8.73
March 27, 2017 Price: $82.13
Price Change: $73.40
Percent Change: 840.8%
56. ADS - Alliance Data Systems Corporation
March 9, 2009 Price: $26.06
March 27, 2017 Price: $243.43
Price Change: $217.37
Percent Change: 834.1%
57. TSCO - Tractor Supply Company
March 9, 2009 Price: $7.34
March 27, 2017 Price: $68.42
Price Change: $61.08
Percent Change: 832.5%
58. UNH - UnitedHealth Group Incorporated
March 9, 2009 Price: $17.79
March 27, 2017 Price: $164.60
Price Change: $146.81
Percent Change: 825.2%
59. GT - Goodyear Tire & Rubber Company
March 9, 2009 Price: $3.90
March 27, 2017 Price: $35.99
Price Change: $32.09
Percent Change: 822.8%
60. CNC - Centene Corporation
March 9, 2009 Price: $7.68
March 27, 2017 Price: $70.23
Price Change: $62.56
Percent Change: 815.0%
61. EQIX - Equinix Inc.
March 9, 2009 Price: $42.26
March 27, 2017 Price: $384.00
Price Change: $341.74
Percent Change: 808.7%
62. AMP - Ameriprise Financial Inc.
March 9, 2009 Price: $13.80
March 27, 2017 Price: $125.28
Price Change: $111.48
Percent Change: 807.8%
63. AGN - Allergan plc
March 9, 2009 Price: $26.41
March 27, 2017 Price: $239.38
Price Change: $212.97
Percent Change: 806.4%
64. PRU - Prudential Financial Inc.
March 9, 2009 Price: $11.61
March 27, 2017 Price: $104.50
Price Change: $92.89
Percent Change: 800.1%
65. ROST - Ross Stores Inc.
March 9, 2009 Price: $7.33
March 27, 2017 Price: $65.34
Price Change: $58.01
Percent Change: 791.7%
66. WHR - Whirlpool Corporation
March 9, 2009 Price: $19.39
March 27, 2017 Price: $169.86
Price Change: $150.47
Percent Change: 776.0%
67. MAC - Macerich Company
March 9, 2009 Price: $7.27
March 27, 2017 Price: $63.09
Price Change: $55.82
Percent Change: 767.8%
68. AIV - Apartment Investment and Management Company Class A
March 9, 2009 Price: $5.12
March 27, 2017 Price: $44.22
Price Change: $39.10
Percent Change: 763.7%
69. EL - Estee Lauder Companies Inc. Class A
March 9, 2009 Price: $9.98
March 27, 2017 Price: $85.82
Price Change: $75.85
Percent Change: 760.4%
70. ORLY - O'Reilly Automotive Inc.
March 9, 2009 Price: $31.78
March 27, 2017 Price: $269.80
Price Change: $238.02
Percent Change: 749.0%
71. CMG - Chipotle Mexican Grill Inc.
March 9, 2009 Price: $49.07
March 27, 2017 Price: $414.96
Price Change: $365.89
Percent Change: 745.6%
72. ROK - Rockwell Automation Inc.
March 9, 2009 Price: $18.34
March 27, 2017 Price: $152.85
Price Change: $134.51
Percent Change: 733.4%
73. EMN - Eastman Chemical Company
March 9, 2009 Price: $9.42
March 27, 2017 Price: $77.93
Price Change: $68.52
Percent Change: 727.7%
74. FL - Foot Locker Inc.
March 9, 2009 Price: $8.86
March 27, 2017 Price: $72.80
Price Change: $63.94
Percent Change: 721.7%
75. UHS - Universal Health Services Inc. Class B
March 9, 2009 Price: $15.39
March 27, 2017 Price: $125.97
Price Change: $110.58
Percent Change: 718.5%
76. DPS - Dr Pepper Snapple Group Inc.
March 9, 2009 Price: $11.90
March 27, 2017 Price: $97.23
Price Change: $85.33
Percent Change: 717.1%
77. LEN - Lennar Corporation Class A
March 9, 2009 Price: $6.25
March 27, 2017 Price: $50.98
Price Change: $44.73
Percent Change: 715.7%
78. IR - Ingersoll-Rand Plc
March 9, 2009 Price: $9.72
March 27, 2017 Price: $78.56
Price Change: $68.84
Percent Change: 708.1%
79. HD - Home Depot Inc.
March 9, 2009 Price: $18.23
March 27, 2017 Price: $146.87
Price Change: $128.64
Percent Change: 705.7%
80. SNA - Snap-on Incorporated
March 9, 2009 Price: $20.77
March 27, 2017 Price: $164.91
Price Change: $144.14
Percent Change: 694.0%
81. ISRG - Intuitive Surgical Inc.
March 9, 2009 Price: $96.87
March 27, 2017 Price: $767.32
Price Change: $670.45
Percent Change: 692.1%
82. FFIV - F5 Networks Inc.
March 9, 2009 Price: $18.57
March 27, 2017 Price: $146.52
Price Change: $127.95
Percent Change: 689.0%
83. MA - Mastercard Incorporated Class A
March 9, 2009 Price: $14.24
March 27, 2017 Price: $111.94
Price Change: $97.70
Percent Change: 685.9%
84. MNST - Monster Beverage Corporation
March 9, 2009 Price: $5.97
March 27, 2017 Price: $46.90
Price Change: $40.93
Percent Change: 685.6%
85. FISV - Fiserv Inc.
March 9, 2009 Price: $14.82
March 27, 2017 Price: $115.49
Price Change: $100.67
Percent Change: 679.3%
86. EBAY - eBay Inc.
March 9, 2009 Price: $4.32
March 27, 2017 Price: $33.43
Price Change: $29.11
Percent Change: 673.4%
87. MAR - Marriott International Inc. Class A
March 9, 2009 Price: $12.08
March 27, 2017 Price: $93.17
Price Change: $81.09
Percent Change: 671.1%
88. TSN - Tyson Foods Inc. Class A
March 9, 2009 Price: $8.05
March 27, 2017 Price: $61.84
Price Change: $53.79
Percent Change: 668.2%
89. ADBE - Adobe Systems Incorporated
March 9, 2009 Price: $16.78
March 27, 2017 Price: $128.25
Price Change: $111.47
Percent Change: 664.3%
90. CMI - Cummins Inc.
March 9, 2009 Price: $19.61
March 27, 2017 Price: $149.66
Price Change: $130.05
Percent Change: 663.2%
91. RAI - Reynolds American Inc.
March 9, 2009 Price: $8.24
March 27, 2017 Price: $62.75
Price Change: $54.52
Percent Change: 662.0%
92. NOC - Northrop Grumman Corporation
March 9, 2009 Price: $31.16
March 27, 2017 Price: $235.83
Price Change: $204.67
Percent Change: 656.8%
93. ALXN - Alexion Pharmaceuticals Inc.
March 9, 2009 Price: $15.83
March 27, 2017 Price: $118.83
Price Change: $103.01
Percent Change: 650.9%
94. LB - L Brands Inc.
March 9, 2009 Price: $6.38
March 27, 2017 Price: $47.69
Price Change: $41.31
Percent Change: 647.5%
95. SPGI - S&P Global Inc.
March 9, 2009 Price: $17.39
March 27, 2017 Price: $128.45
Price Change: $111.06
Percent Change: 638.6%
96. WYNN - Wynn Resorts, Limited
March 9, 2009 Price: $15.55
March 27, 2017 Price: $114.65
Price Change: $99.10
Percent Change: 637.3%
97. AXP - American Express Company
March 9, 2009 Price: $10.64
March 27, 2017 Price: $77.60
Price Change: $66.96
Percent Change: 629.3%
98. NI - NiSource Inc
March 9, 2009 Price: $3.27
March 27, 2017 Price: $23.81
Price Change: $20.54
Percent Change: 627.4%
99. ADSK - Autodesk Inc.
March 9, 2009 Price: $11.78
March 27, 2017 Price: $85.44
Price Change: $73.66
Percent Change: 625.3%
100. FOXA - Twenty-First Century Fox Inc. Class A
March 9, 2009 Price: $4.41
March 27, 2017 Price: $31.90
Price Change: $27.49
Percent Change: 624.0%