Anger and frustration are not limited to middle-class voters. They are roiling the ranks of the educated and people you would normally think of as the protected class. There is a growing recognition that the system no longer functions for many Americans. Donald Trump comes along and says he understands and sympathizes with average Americans; and he’s the one who expresses that frustration in terms that a majority of the unprotected can understand. Other candidates may sympathize, too, but what comes out of their mouths sounds like conventional political yak-yak. Whatever you want to say about Donald Trump, when you hear him speak he doesn’t sound like a normal politician.

I keep telling people to toss out their old investment models because the underlying economic tectonic plates are shifting under our feet, making our old models spit out unreliable predictions. So too, it’s time to seriously think about throwing out our models for political predictions, because we’re in the middle of what is likely to be an epic generational shift in voting patterns. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Now we have to apply that maxim to our political forecasts as well.

There is a fascinating quote attributed to Lord Salisbury, who was the Tory prime minister of England during Queen Victoria’s reign. Supposedly, when she said that things must change, he rejoined, “Change? Change? Aren’t things bad enough already?”

That response is generally read as an upper-class Victorian-era conservative reaction to a situation that might threaten his personal status and class. I read that quote now and wonder about the changes looming in our near future. I wonder whether we’ll look back in 10 years and wish we hadn’t wanted things to change so much. – especially when we’re so uncertain as to what the overall outcome of all that change will be. In addition to finding ourselves in the middle of a massive global monetary policy experiment with no clear understanding of what the consequences are, there is a real potential that we may be entering into a period of similar political experimentation. Fasten your seatbelt.

These are among the topics we are going to have to continue to explore in the coming months and years. I think they have all sorts of serious implications for our investments and financial planning.

Abu Dhabi, Raleigh, SIC, and New York

I will fly to Abu Dhabi tomorrow evening for a series of meetings and speaking engagements. I was surprised to learn that I can fly nonstop from Dallas to Abu Dhabi on Etihad Airways. That’s one of the nice things about being in Dallas – there are very few places in the world I can’t get to either directly or with one stopover. I will let you know about my experience on Etihad.

I then come home and almost immediately go to Raleigh, North Carolina, to speak at the Investment Institute’s Spring 2016 Event. I’m looking forward to hearing John Burbank and Mark Yusko (who will also be at my own conference the same week) and then to being on a panel with them. I also get to meet with my longtime early mentor and friend Bob Mumford, a name from the past that some of you may remember.

After speaking in the afternoon, I make a mad dash for the airport, arrive back in the Dallas late Monday night, and make final preparations for my Strategic Investment Conference, where upwards of 700 of my closest friends will gather to discuss all things macroeconomic and geopolitical. It is going to be a great week! If you won’t be going to the conference, you can have the next best thing: recordings of the speakers, delivered just a few days after SIC 2016 ends. You can order your set here. I should note that the price will go up after the conference. A lot. So just jump on this offer now.

Speaking of the conference, we have had a few people cancel their registrations for last-minute personal reasons, and those cancellations have opened up a number of spots for those who might like to attend. You can call us at 877-631-6311 to register.

It has been an interesting week for me. David Tice reintroduced me to Vikram Mansharamani, the author of the bestseller Boombustology, which is the definitive book on how to spot financial bubbles before they burst. Vikram is now a professor at Yale, but over the years he has held various positions in management consulting, investment banking, and the running of hedge funds. He now focuses on speaking, writing, teaching, and some consulting. He is a fascinating individual, and it is somewhat intimidating to realize that he is only 42. We have a lot of shared friends and not surprisingly share a number of economic concerns. I think I have talked him into coming to my conference this year. I will try to figure out how to plug him in, as you really do want to meet him.

But before Vikram came by for the prime rib and mushrooms dinner we cooked for a few friends, Ed Easterling dropped in, and we compared notes on the world as I was cooking. You have to be careful with Ed. He can move the conversation in an odd direction and then drop a new, startling factoid into the mix, just to get your reaction. I didn’t see this one coming…

The recent North Carolina law that denies transgender people the right to choose which public bathroom they use has been challenged by the US Justice Department. As I understand it, the law actually goes farther than that and removes a lot of other normal protections, but this is the one that makes the headline. After discussing the topic for a minute, Ed asked me a seemingly innocuous question … for which I knew I had been set up. “How many possible genders are there available on Facebook?” I thought a bit and guessed six. Ed smiled and replied, “No, there are 58.”

I called bull, and we immediately jumped onto Google. Sure enough, the first result was from ABC News, with the headline “Here’s a List of 58 Gender Options for Facebook Users.”

What actually happens is that Facebook gives you a choice between male and female and “custom.” In the US, ABC News had so far found 58 options through their diligent research. It gets more interesting, or perhaps confusing. It turns out there 71 gender options in the United Kingdom. I have always suspected that Brits were a little more different than Yanks, and now I have proof. Then again, they may be having a lot more fun than I ever knew about.
My youngest (21) son walked through about that time, and I caught him up on our conversation. He looked at us and said, “I can’t deal with this. I’m having a hard enough time with the choice between Clinton and Trump. I simply can’t deal with gender confusion at the same time.” And then he turned around and walked away. Perhaps you can sympathize.

The evolution of our social mores over the last 1,000 years has been painstaking but, on the whole, considerable. What was acceptable even in the late Middle Ages – along the lines of killing and torturing for revenge, the marriage of 12-year-olds, and droit du seigneur – is now seen as barbaric and highly illegal. My kids and their friends all think it is perfectly silly that homosexuality was once illegal or held to be immoral. Over time, cultures adapt, and I am sure that with a little bit of bending here and there (pun intended), the Republic will survive. I must tell you, I’m far more worried about monetary policy than I am about gender selection.

It’s time to hit the send button. I have a lot of work to do, and I want to actually have some kind of a life tonight as my girlfriend (yes, I have one of those now and have had for quite some time) and I are going to grill some steaks for friends and just chill. You have a great week!

Your more confused than ever analyst,

John Mauldin

John Mauldin is editor of Mauldin Economics' Outside The Box.

This article was originally published at Mauldin Economics.

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