U.S. oil output is poised to surpass Saudi Arabia’s in the next decade, making the world’s largest fuel consumer almost self-reliant and putting it on track to become a net exporter, the International Energy Agency said last month.
Even so, problems remain. Rosenberg said he is particularly worried about continued high unemployment -- 7.9 percent in October, up from 4.7 percent five years ago -- and its impact on worker earnings.
“This will go down as a wageless recovery,” the Canadian economist said.
Average hourly earnings for production workers rose 1.1 percent in the 12 months to October, the weakest since Labor Department records began in 1965.
The bottom line for Rosenberg: The economy still is “stuck in the mud.”
Pimco’s El-Erian predicts GDP probably will grow 1.5 percent to 2 percent during the next year as President Barack Obama and Congress strike a “mini-bargain” to avoid the fiscal cliff and moderately reduce the budget deficit.
‘Sputnik Moment’
The economy could do better if policy makers can pull off what El-Erian calls a “Sputnik moment” -- a critical mass of reforms that restores corporate confidence and unleashes pent-up investment, hiring and demand. Such steps might include measures to tackle youth and long-term unemployment, as well as cutting the deficit.
“There’s tremendous cash on the sidelines,” he said.
David Cote, chief executive officer of Morris Township, New Jersey-based Honeywell International Inc., says a budget deal alone could do wonders for the U.S.