LPL Financial has raised the odds of the U.S. economy suffering a recession two to three times higher than they were 40 days ago, citing rising unemployment claims.

The U.S. now has a 30 percent chance of entering a recession, according to John Canally, chief economic strategist for LPL Financial in Boston.

At the beginning of the year, Canally pegged the odds of a recession at around 10 percent to 15 percent, but now the volatile markets have increased the likelihood of monetary, fiscal, and/or currency policy mistakes, Canally said.

“With their year-to-date performance, many financial markets have already priced in a recession,” Canally said in commentary on Wednesday. “While no serious market participant uses only one indicator to make a recession call during times of uncertainty, many investors want to focus on the most timely indicators, which are market based. … While market data can provide minute-by-minute updates on recession odds, markets often overreact, making it difficult to separate out the signal from the noise.”

Canally said weekly reports on initial claims of unemployment insurance are a leading indicator. A recession is signaled when claims hit a bottom and begin to trend higher.

“The four-week average claims bottomed out around 260,000 in October 2015, and in the latest week, (reported on) Jan. 30, 2016, stood at 285,000,” Canally said, noting that the unemployment claims signal correctly called recessions six times in the past 50 years, with an average lead time of 16 months.

Unemployment claims occasionally send false signals. In the same 50-year time period, the bottom was not associated with a recession five times, instead occurring during periods of tightening fiscal policy, financial crisis, and/or a strong dollar.

Since the current rise in unemployment claims is a modest one, Canally cautioned that it does not necessarily indicate recession: “The Fed just began raising rates, oil prices have collapsed, the dollar has surged and a potential financial crisis is brewing in several oil exporting nations due to the drop in oil prices. All of these types of events have been associated with a false recession signal from claims in the past.”