Giving recognition to Byron Wien, the originator of the top 10 surprises issued every year in January, Morgan Creek Capital CEO Mark Yusko offered attendees at the ninth annual Inside ETFs conference in Fort Lauderdale his version of the unexpected events to look out for this year.

Yusko defined a "surprise" as a variant perception with a 50 percent chance of happening. The surprises follow below.

1. Economic growth surprises on the downside. One or more of the three major developed economies -- the U.S., Europe and Japan -- goes into recession. In America, the PMI is signaling a recession. Never has the
U.S. experienced year-over-year declines in profits without a recession and that looks like it is about to happen.

2. Two wrongs won't make it right. After raising rates in December, a humbled Federal Reserve launches QE Four in the second half of 2016. Personal consumption expenditures are closer to 0 percent than the 2 percent that the Fed is looking for.

3. Please save us Bank of Japan Governor Kuroda. The Japanese central bank weakens the yen further. Japanese stocks will outperform U.S. equities over the next decade by a margin of between 2-to-1 to 3-to-1. Few in America have noticed, but over the last three years, Japanese equities are up 100 percent and their price-to-earnings ratio is down.

4. Saudi Arabia ends its role as the world's swing producer of oil and recommits to increasing production. Incongruous as it may seem, the price of oil rebounds into the mid-$40 a barrel area in the second half of 2016, even touching $50.