Recent political chaos has caused few ripples in mostly tranquil financial markets, and that’s unlikely to change in the near term.

The first six months of Donald Trump’s presidency have not created the predictable environment most market participants want from Washington, D.C., but U.S. equities have continued on an eight-year bull run almost unabated, according to Greg Valliere, because most of the bad news is irrelevant to investors.

“We have to be mindful of how truly good the fundamentals are,” says Valliere, chief global strategiest at Charlotte-based Horizon Investments. “Most of these headlines—transgender policies in the military, for example—may be embarrassing to the president, but they aren’t things that will move the markets.”

Valliere says the barrage of negative news about the White House, whether it be the ousters White House Chief of Staff Reince Preibus, Communications Director Anthony Scaramucci or Press Secretary Sean Spicer, or the president’s moves on international climate change policy and trade, isn’t enough to disrupt positive investor sentiment.

Valliere believes only three issues are serious enough to cause a reversal in financial markets: tax reform, North Korea and the investigation into potential collusion between Trump’s campaign and Russia.

After repeated failed attempts to reform and repeal the 2010 Affordable Care Act slowed the legislative process through the first half of this year, Valliere believes that action to reform the corporate and individual income tax codes will not take place until next year.

“Time is probably going to run out on tax reform this year,” he says. “It will probably be well into the spring before we get a tax reform passed, and it will be a fairly modest one.”

Markets have already priced in some tax reform, says Valliere, making another legislative failure potentially costly for investors.

North Korea, which has accelerated the development and testing of intercontinental ballistic missiles in recent months, might also cause disruption in the markets. While Valliere expects that North Korea will continue its weapons programs and its defiant stance towards the international order, he’s more concerned with the Trump administration’s diplomatic stance towards China.

“Trump is becoming more aggressive towards China, blaming them for not leaning on North Korea,” he says. “I worry about Trump maybe imposing sanctions against China. If that happened, China would almost certainly retaliate, and the markets would not be pleased.”

Elsewhere, Trump has been able to establish working relationships with British and French leaders, notes Valliere, and Western Europe appears to be undergoing an economic recovery that may create opportunities for international investors.

The largest wildcard, according to Valliere, is the ongoing investigation into the relationship between Trump and Russia. Former FBI Director Robert Mueller, serving as special counsel in the investigation, will likely report his findings this coming winter—if he isn’t dismissed first.

“If it becomes clear through leaks this fall that Mueller is looking into Trump’s finances, and Trump decides to try to dismiss Mueller, then you have a constitutional crisis,” he says. “If that happens, it would be an enormous roadblock for any legislation moving forward as we go into next year.”

Meanwhile, Congress will have to pivot from health-care reform to the budget when it returns, and will have to address the debt ceiling by mid October, says Valliere, which will push much of the Trump and Republican agenda back to 2018.

The clock has already run out on legislative attempts to repeal the Dodd-Frank Act and avoid the full implementation of the U.S. Department of Labor’s fiduciary rulemaking on Jan. 1, 2018, says Valliere. Efforts to fund infrastructure projects and to build a wall along the U.S. border with Mexico will probably be delayed to 2019, when the White House may have a less cooperative Congress in place.

While Democrats have a good chance next year of picking up the 24 seats that they would need to control the House of Representatives, they may continue to lose ground in the Senate, says Valliere.

“Of the 33 seats up for grabs in the Senate, 25 are held by Democrats,” he says. “Ten of them are held by Democrats in states where Trump won, and 5 of those are in states where Trump won by double digits. I think Republicans could get up to 54 or 55 seats in the Senate.”

Moving on to the 2020 presidential election, Valliere says there’s a long way to go before Trump’s re-election is in doubt. For one thing, the Democrats lack a credible challenger.

If Republicans fail to move forward on at least some of the non-health care elements of their domestic agenda, the populist wave that carried Trump to the presidency may turn against them, says Valliere.

“The public will continue to be disillusioned about the ability to get anything done in Congress,” he says. “Even to Republicans, this Congress has been a disappointment, and this populist, anti-incumbent mood may perisist and become something that Republicans really have to worry about.”