Obamacare’s insurance exchanges debut tomorrow and so far the run-up has looked a lot like a political campaign, with dueling TV ads, door-knocking volunteers and a focus on swing-state targets.

Just don’t expect the usual ending to an election: a clear winner at the end of the day.

While the exchanges are expected to open on time, that milestone is unlikely to settle the 3 1/2-year grudge match over the Affordable Care Act. A long enrollment season, complicated by a threatened U.S. government shutdown and a growing list of technical glitches, means it may be as late as April before it’s known how many uninsured Americans sign up under the law.

While the shutdown won’t stop the roll-out, which is largely funded through mandatory appropriations that can’t be curtailed by congressional inaction, it’s an open question whether it will lessen public enthusiasm to enroll. In the meantime, technical glitches are beginning to surface.

People in Oregon, for example, won’t be able to enroll in a plan for the first few weeks unless they go through a broker or designated nonprofit groups, and the Obamacare exchange in the nation’s capital won’t include premium prices until mid- November.

The Obama administration says other glitches are inevitable as the system starts up. The question is how serious and how long it takes the exchange to fix any issues. An extended crash or a problem calculating subsidies could be an embarrassment for the White House -- and sour consumers just as the administration tries to convince them to enroll.

‘In Between’

“Is it going to be a train wreck, a complete failure? The answer is no,” said Dan Schuyler, a director at Leavitt Partners, a Salt Lake City-based health-care consultant. “Is it going to be completely seamless and instantaneous? No. It is going to be somewhere in between.”

The exchanges are at the heart of the law’s efforts to cover more of the 48 million uninsured Americans. About 7 million people will use the system to buy subsidized insurance by the end of the first open enrollment period on March 31, according to congressional projections.

Republicans will spotlight any problem as proof the law is a disaster. Democrats say they’ll overcome technical glitches and the law will sell itself as the uninsured gain benefits. Polls show most Americans side with the skeptics.

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