The new magic number in the oil industry is $50.
BP Plc, rig-owner Nabors Industries Ltd. and explorer Pioneer Natural Resources Co. all said in the past 24 hours that prices above $50 will encourage more drilling or provide the needed boost to cash flow. With oil bouncing close to $45 a barrel, an industry that has been shaving costs to stay competitive is ready for signs of stability at a price level less than half of 2014’s average.
At an average price of $53 per barrel of oil means the world’s 50 biggest publicly traded companies in the industry can stop bleeding cash, according to oilfield consultant Wood Mackenzie Ltd. Nabors, which owns the world’s largest fleet of onshore drilling rigs, said it has already been talking with several large customers about plans to boost work in the second half of the year if prices rise "comfortably" above $50.
"It’s not just about touching $50," Fraser McKay, vice president of corporate analysis at Wood Mackenzie in Houston, said Tuesday in a phone interview. "It’s about touching, maintaining and having the perception of future prices above $50 a barrel before you start sanctioning projects that are economic at $50 a barrel."
Spending Cuts
The global oil industry slashed more than $100 billion in spending last year and is in the midst of further cuts this year to survive what Schlumberger Ltd. has called the industry’s worst-ever financial crisis. In North America alone, spending is expected to drop by half from last year.
Prices have rebounded by about two-thirds from a 12-year low, with Brent, the international crude benchmark, trading above $45 a barrel Tuesday. The rally has explorers from BP to Pioneer looking ahead to an eventual recovery as they release first quarter earnings this week. Next year, BP will be able to balance cash flow with shareholder payouts and capital spending at an oil price of $50 to $55 a barrel, down from a previous estimate of $60, the London-based explorer said. Pioneer expects to add as many as 10 horizontal drilling rigs when oil reaches $50 and the outlook for supply and demand of crude is positive, the company said Monday in its earnings statement.
For every $5 that oil prices climb, above a baseline of $37, Continental Resources Inc. adds another roughly $200 million in revenue, Chief Operating Officer Jack Stark said last month in an interview in New Orleans. By the time oil prices reach $52, the Oklahoma City-based explorer would probably look at adding more rigs, he said.
"We won’t chase price spikes," Stark said. "We’re committed to being patient."
Failed Rally