Global Consumption
OPEC boosted its 2018 global demand view by 600,000 barrels to 95 million a day and introduced a demand forecast for 2019 of 96 million barrels a day. Growth will average 1 million barrels a day from 2013 to 2019, compared with the average of 900,000 for 2012 to 2018 published in last year’s report.
OPEC members may need to invest more than $40 billion a year on finding and developing new oil supplies for the rest of this decade, and $60 billion a year in the longer-term, it said.
The oil industry as a whole will have to spend $7.3 trillion on upstream projects in the period from 2014 to 2040. Most of this spent outside OPEC, at a rate in the medium term of $300 billion a year. Additional spending on transportation, storage and refining means that the global oil industry will need to invest $10 trillion to 2040, according to the report.
The report assumes that OPEC’s gauge of oil prices, a “basket” composed of grades from each member, will remain at $110 a barrel in nominal terms for the rest of the decade, rising to $124 a barrel in 2025 and $177 a barrel in 2040.
That basket was at $78.11 yesterday. It averaged $100.86 in the third quarter and $101.51 so far this year.