Crude futures trading in New York jumped 28% to $106.95 a barrel from their low on Feb. 15 to the high on March 7 as political unrest in Egypt and Libya threatened to curtail supplies. A surge to $140 may spur a recession, Nouriel Roubini, the New York University professor and chairman of Roubini Global Economics LLC who predicted the financial crisis, said in Dubai on March 8.

Oil will drop to $99 a barrel in New York next quarter, according to New York-based Goldman Sachs Group Inc. U.S. gross domestic product will expand 3.1% in 2011, matching the level in 2005, according to the median estimate in a Bloomberg survey of 89 economists.

While the bull market just passed its second anniversary, dividends haven't increased during a calendar year since the financial crisis began in 2007. Seventy-eight companies slashed them by a record $48 billion in 2009 to maintain cash as sales slumped, S&P data show. At the same time, corporate expense cuts helped prop up earnings, driving last year's 36% growth and widening the ratio between yields on profits and dividends.

Exceeding Payouts

Earnings are exceeding payouts in the S&P 500 by a rate that preceded higher dividends in the past. On average, executives boosted payouts 16% during periods when the ratio topped 3, according to Bloomberg data going back to 1998.

CBS, owner of the most-watched U.S. television network, trades with an earnings yield of 6.9 times its dividend rate, a ratio that reached 7.1 on March 3, the highest since at least 2006, Bloomberg data show. The New York-based company outperformed the S&P 500 by surging 25% this year through last week, compared with the index's 3.7% climb.

CBS posted an almost fivefold increase in fourth-quarter profit. The company cut the quarterly dividend in 2009 to 5 cents from 27 cents, and while earnings have surpassed estimates for six straight quarters, CBS hasn't boosted the payout. Data compiled by Bloomberg shows it may increase the dividend to 8 cents a share when it declares on May 26.

'Very Good'

"Our cash position is very good," Chief Executive Officer Leslie Moonves said during a Feb. 24 conference with analysts and investors. A dividend increase is "something we are discussing very seriously, but no decision's been made yet." Dana McClintock, a CBS spokesman, declined to comment further.

At Pioneer Natural, profit will more than double to $3.07 a share in 2011, according to the average analyst estimate in a Bloomberg survey. The earnings yield is higher than the dividend payout after the relationship flipped at the end of 2009. The Irving, Texas-based oil and gas producer will double its payout on Aug. 29, according to Bloomberg projections. Its shares have risen 9.5% in 2011.