If you find yourself on the wrong side of the trade, cut your losses—it could have years to run.
If yourself on the right side of the trade… it could have years to run.
The Bearish Argument
This is actually a Jared Dillian quote; I did not steal this from anybody:
“The bearish argument is always most compelling on the lows.”
Stated another way, the bearish argument sounds the smartest.
The commodity bears sound pretty smart. They are right! Great.
When the turn happens, they will be wrong.
In other words, there is zero probability they will suddenly just have a change of heart and get bullish on commodities right on the lows.
So it is hard to use these folks as a coincident indicator. But when the volume of these arguments picks up, it’s time to pay attention.