My head swirls listening to the pundits every day. When the markets rise, we hear why it will continue up and when it falls, like last week, the same "wise" men tell you why that trend will continue.
These experts very rarely step back, review all the facts, reflect and invest accordingly.
Everyone appears to be a trader and attempts to pick the tops and bottoms of every market move. Maybe that is why the pros are underperforming so badly. They are smart to a fault. Yes, we live in a volatile world and events influence daily actions, but it is critical to differentiate between short-term trading swings and long-term investment trends. That is what we do best and the reason we have outperformed all averages by a wide mark for 35 years.
This was a newsworthy week and there were a lot of events to chew on. Before I get to them, I'd like to suggest that you read two small pieces that I wrote during the week in response to specific events that I found particularly relevant to investing in today's environment: "What if Greece Leaves the Euro" and "Buffett's Message."
Keeping things simple, here’s what I see happening if Greece left the euro:
1. Greece would return to the drachma, which would be significantly devalued against the Euro.
2. The euro would rise in value since weak countries such as Greece have held it down.
3. European stock markets would decline, hurt by a rising euro and potential bank write-downs of Greek debt.
4. The European economies would be hurt and Greece would enter a deeper recession.
5. All financial markets would go down initially, like when Switzerland revalued but then recovered over time.
Greece proposed its list of reforms on Saturday to hopefully satisfy the ECB and its own people. Even if they are accepted, lots needs to happen, including realization of their objectives.