Don’t count out Treasuries just yet.
Even after the prospect of higher U.S. interest rates sparked the deepest selloff in two years, Prudential Financial Inc., RBC Global Asset Management and ED&F Man Capital Markets say there are still plenty of reasons to keep government bonds in demand.
From worries over Greece’s financial ruin to the sudden collapse of China’s stock market, events halfway around the world are prompting traders to question whether the Federal Reserve will start raising rates before year-end. Deutsche Bank AG, one of the 22 primary dealers the trade directly with the Fed, now expects the central bank to hold off until 2016.
And it isn’t just global shocks that may support Treasuries. While jobs are back and business confidence is growing, wages remain stagnant. That suggests the weakest expansion in the post-World War II era is still struggling to generate the kind of inflation that causes investors to abandon U.S. bonds. What’s more, the last time that 10-year notes were so cheap relative to short-term debt -- in September -- they rallied over the next three months.
“There’s a good chance yields are going to crest here,” Tipp, the chief investment strategist in Prudential Financial’s fixed-income unit, which oversees $560 billion, said from Newark, New Jersey.
Since reaching a peak of 2.5 percent in June, yields on 10- year Treasuries have retreated and ended at 2.38 percent on Thursday. U.S. financial markets were closed on July 3 to celebrate the Fourth of July holiday.
Signs of renewed demand comes after Treasuries tumbled 2 percent last quarter, index data compiled by Bloomberg show.
The slump was the biggest since the three months ended June 2013, after then-Fed Chairman Ben S. Bernanke sparked the “taper tantrum” by suggesting that the central bank could end its bond-buying program.
The selloff, part of a global rout in bonds, gained momentum in the past month as reports on labor growth to personal spending indicated the U.S. economy was on an upswing, strengthening the Fed’s case for finally lifting rates after leaving them close to zero since 2008.