(Bloomberg News) Gold may extend its decade-long rally as demand surges from emerging markets including China and India, according to the producer-funded World Gold Council.
"There's a tidal wave of gold demand coming," Jason Toussaint, the WGC's managing director of U.S. and Investment, said today at the Bloomberg Link Money Managers Conference in Boston. "A key is the long-term fundamental change in emerging markets. The biggest markets of growth are China and India."
Gold is up 7 percent in New York this year, touching a record $1,577.40 an ounce on May 2. The metal has gained fivefold since the end of 2000. India is the biggest consumer of the metal and China is the second-biggest, according to data from the council.
"There's been a tremendous surge in the monetary base globally," Edward Meir, a senior commodity analyst at MF Global Holdings Ltd., said at the conference. "The dollar is losing its luster. The natural currency to be bought is the yuan, but because you can't buy the yuan, people are buying gold."
China's gold buying surged 47 percent in the first quarter and may double before 2020 as the nation's population and wealth increases and as investment demand expands because of near-term concerns that inflation is accelerating, the council predicted in May.
Most investors in China and India hold gold in the form of jewelry, which accounted for 63 percent of global purchases in the first quarter.
"Gold doesn't seem over-owned from an investor perspective and will probably move higher," Jeffrey Kleintop, the chief market strategist at LPL Financial Corp. in Boston, said at the conference.
Gold futures for August delivery rose $5.70, or 0.4 percent, to $1,521.30 an ounce at 11:03 a.m. on the Comex in New York.