“The hit to corporate earnings from weak oil and the big rise in the dollar will slowly lessen,” said Hall. “Near-term we expect to see some volatility, but as the year goes on, we think profit and sales growth will start to pick up again. We’re expecting the market to go up from here, but we remain very cautious on credit-sensitive names.”

Bank of America forecasts that earnings for companies the S&P 500 will expand 5 percent in 2016. The average analyst prediction calls for 4.6 percent profit growth, according to data compiled by Bloomberg.

Should the S&P 500 reverse and end the year higher, it will probably require gains in momentum stocks that have gotten off to a rocky start in 2016. The strategy, defined as investment in the companies with the biggest gains in the last six to 12 months, was the top-performing investment method in 2015 with a 32 percent gain, according to Evercore ISI data. So far this year, an exchange-traded fund tracking the group has tumbled 7.3 percent, trailing the S&P 500 by more than two percentage points.

“You can’t leave any stone unturned, and everything is going to eventually crack,” said Walter Todd, who oversees about $1.1 billion as chief investment officer for Greenwood Capital Associates LLC in South Carolina. “Some of the only stocks holding up the index last year, these big momentum winners, are now seeing some cracks.”

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