Back in the day certain market mavens could move the stock market. Names like Joe Granville come to mind. Two other such mavens were Steve Shobin and Ralph Acampora."

. . . Another stock market maven

I recently heard from both mavens. First was Steven Shobin who wrote (as paraphrased):

"I'm sticking to my idea of a big, wide swinging range until the election. I believe we're close to top end of the range. The Russell 2000 closed 1087 Friday before the weekend I wrote my last piece. Now it's at 1080. I watch the Russell pretty closely for two reasons: 1) most stocks I trade are very volatile, low/midcap guys, and I want to know how the wind blows in the stadium I'm playing in; 2) the overall market tends to do best when Russell is zinging, or at least confirming. Dating back to the 90s, after a nasty correction, the Russell didn't have to build a big base before the market was ready to rock and roll, but it did have to have at least a modicum of basing. Generally, that base took the form of a 10% or greater, albeit it very short lived, rally followed by a test of lows (often a minor new low), then a breakout to new recovery highs (double bottom, then a breakout). So far, we've had the 10% rally (it will probably go a little higher). If precedent prevails, we should have a test of lows, then ultimately a breakout. Obviously, no pattern follows history precisely, but that's the general pattern I'm looking (hoping) for. Very short term, I think we'll work a little higher before rolling over. My sentiment numbers (ISE 10 day call/put ratio) are super constructive. These guys are much more medium term than the ones you might use or the McClellan folks talk about. The market has had, and could easily have, a sharp correction without my stuff deteriorating, but a 20% decline in S&P 500 is not likely. The idea of a trading range has become increasingly popular, so maybe that pattern won't work. But overall, I think no big up here as too much damage occurred in the last setback to expect a sustained recovery without more basing. The reasons I'm not looking for catastrophe and expect the next big move to be up are: 1) sentiment numbers reflect a fair amount of caution and a substantial amount of sideline buying power (cash), should a positive catalyst occur; 2) lots of potential bases in baby/midcap banks and technology (new leadership?)."

Next was Ralph Acampora who wrote:

"As this market rally broadens out, the prospects of last February's lows being the final bottom becomes more of a certainty. The S&P Sectors making new recovery highs yesterday (3-29-16): Consumer Discretionary, Technology and Utilities. The Russell 2000 is leading the charge higher; yesterday's upside breakout from its recent consolidation pattern is very encouraging. The weakening US Dollar is having a positive impact on commodities. Expect this activity to continue. Emerging markets are playing a game of catch-up as they outperform the S&P 500 since the February lows. The market's strength is being led by technology, a very positive omen. The market is set to really challenge its 2015 overhead resistance. Yesterday Janet Yellen's dovish comments about interest rates lit a fire under the stock market - the correction is over - the trend is up."

I can argue on the positive side for both of these scenarios, but I am really having trouble with the now ubiquitous belief the equity markets are "range bound." One could make the case that the S&P 500 (SPX/2059.74) has been "range bound," between 1800 and 2130, since March 2014. If that is not a long enough base, I don't know what is! I do think we remain in a secular bull market and that we have seen a 15.2% pullback from the May 2015 intraday high, so I do not expect any meaningful pullback from here. Yes the markets are overbought in the short term, but they can correct that by going sideways or having just a marginal pullback. I also think in secular bull markets most of the surprises come on the upside. Accordingly, we are not afraid to commit capital here to the more conservative ideas featured by our fundamental analysts. We featured the more speculative ideas in mid-February when we wrote that a double-bottom around 1812 (basis the SPX) was at hand. Further, it is amazing to me that various "seers," who NEVER saw the bottom at 1812 are now calling for a major "top." This morning, the preopening S&P 500 futures are down about 6 points at 5:00 a.m. as participants await today's employment report.

Jeffrey D. Saut is chief investment strategist at Raymond James.