With the economic recovery about to reach its sixth anniversary, don’t bet on the end of the expansion anytime soon, according to MFS officials.
Rather than the American economy being at the end of a cycle, they argue that we are in the middle of a recovery cycle.
Speaking at an investment roundtable in Manhattan Tuesday, MFS’s economy watchers cited several reasons for their bullish outlook: The economic expansion still has a year or two to go. There is no sign of substantial inflation. And, although the Federal Reserve will likely raise rates this year, it will probably have little affect on the economy. Disposable income and average household net worth have been rising.
Many U.S. economic indices are up, noted MFS chief economist Erik Weisman.
So why isn’t the economy doing better than annual 2 percent growth?
MFS officials said the reason for the tepid pace of the recovery is the consumer.
“The consumer could be doing more,” Weisman said, adding that traditional economic measurements are not showing all the productivity improvements in the American economy.
Weisman said the economy shows no signs of problems such as overspending and too much credit. Economies have problems when “they have excesses and I don’t see any excesses,” he said.
Where does this leave the stock market?
MFS Chief Investment Strategist James Swanson said the market is “fairly priced” and that there is little chance of a valuation bubble.